Russia is unlikely to see a notable breakthrough on the battlefield in Ukraine within the coming months, but it poses a growing risk to NATO, according to a new Western intelligence assessment.
“There is no prospect of Russia achieving any major breakthroughs in the war against Ukraine over the next six months,” though it’s “highly unlikely” Moscow will compromise over its objectives, the Danish Defense Intelligence Service said in a report published this week.
Denmark said that Russia is under more pressure than at any other point during its full-scale invasion due to heavy battlefield losses for little territorial gain and economic hardship fueled by global sanctions, high military spending, and Ukrainian strikes on energy facilities.
“Western economic and military support to Ukraine is vital to the country’s capability to hold back Russian forces and to raise the cost to Russia of sustaining the war,” Denmark said.
The assessment comes amid a sharp uptick in hybrid activity such as drone incursions, sabotage, and other malign activity across Europe in recent weeks that Western officials have blamed on Russia. Moscow has repeatedly denied involvement.
Western officials have said that the hybrid activity, which has been a problem for years, looks to undermine European support for Ukraine and test NATO’s resolve and response.
Hybrid actions have escalated this year; for instance, Germany blamed Russia for a foiled drone attack at the Leipzig/Halle Airport over the summer. And NATO fighter jets routinely scramble after drones breach allied airspace.
Denmark said it “assesses that Russia will intensify its hybrid war by carrying out more frequent attacks against the West and NATO, with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past,” warning that this carries a high risk of casualties.
The intelligence assessment said that there is also a “low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries” that border it, even while Moscow remains bogged down in Ukraine and unable to fight a regional war.
Such an attack could come within months and would be designed to splinter the alliance and push it to divert resources away from Ukraine, Denmark said. It could take the form of long-range strikes on infrastructure related to Kyiv’s support, it added.
Denmark said Russia could also deploy a small number of troops into NATO territory, though that would require a large buildup of forces along the border that would take time and be hard to hide.
The intelligence assessment said there is no indication that Russia will launch “an outright invasion” of NATO territory, as such a maneuver would require months of preparation. While this is “highly unlikely, it cannot be ruled out,” Denmark said.
Russia’s embassy in Copenhagen pushed back against the assessment and denied responsibility for recent security incidents, such as the one at Leipzig airport. In a statement, it blamed the West for what it called “the degradation of the European security situation.”
European leaders have warned that Russia’s shadow war could worsen, though stopping short of a conventional war like the one it is waging in Ukraine. NATO’s top official urged allies this week to avoid panic.
“What I’m telling my European colleagues, particularly, is stay calm, carry on, and keep supporting Ukraine,” said Mark Rutte, the secretary general.
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