NATO is racing to prepare for the next drone war, but officials warn that building millions of drones now could leave the alliance with stockpiles of outdated weapons before a fight even begins.
Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion is showing Western militaries that they need to be ready with drone and counter-drone technology. It’s also showing just how quickly that technology can become irrelevant on the modern battlefield.
Allies are investing in drone procurement and training, but there are warnings against building vast arsenals that sit, waiting.
Tarja Jaakola, NATO’s assistant secretary general for defense industry innovation and armaments, said that when it comes to drone and counter-drone solutions, it’s “not like procuring hardware like we did earlier: Buying, putting in the stockpile, and then waiting.”
In this area, she said, “We need to change how we procure.”
That means rethinking how militaries work with industry so that companies can produce updated gear as soon as it is needed, she said.
Jaakola said that NATO needs to recognize “the way the technology evolves” and move toward new “business models and contract models” with industry, buying small numbers to train and test while ensuring companies have “the production capacity” and “the innovation in place” to produce drones when needed.
It cannot simply be a transactional relationship with industry anymore; rather, it needs to be “more a strategic partnership that we need to build,” she said, adding that the old ways of defense procurement are no longer sustainable.
Carsten Breuer, Germany’s chief of defense, said that building lots of drones now does not guarantee future readiness. Germany believes Russia could be ready to start a war with NATO by as early as 2029. He said that when it comes to drones, “can we speak about millions if in 2029 those millions could be outdated already?”
He said that for the West, “it’s not just about speedy procurement. It’s also about actually innovating those procurements.” It’s not just about having lots of drones. “It’s also about establishing the industrial base here in other countries and engaging with this industrial base on a permanent basis, and also that our armed forces are willing to test and to destroy those drones. It also requires the change of procedures.”
The West needs to be ready, he said, because “we’re not at peace, but we are not at war formally either.”
James Patton Rogers, a drone expert at the Cornell Brooks Tech Policy Institute, told Business Insider that a key concern for Western militaries is “how quickly drones become out of date.”
Ukraine says that it is in a constant race to out-develop Russia and keep its drones and battlefield tech relevant. Davyd Aloian, the deputy secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said “speed is essential” and that Ukraine’s defense industry has to move much faster than its partners are used to because, within a matter of months, “solutions will already be outdated.”
That urgency has reshaped how Ukraine’s military and defense industry work. Firms supply and test equipment directly with individual units, soldiers can make their own battlefield tweaks, and manufacturers fold that feedback into updated products.
Frontline Robotics has supplied drones and weaponry to over 60 Ukrainian units. The local arms maker told Business Insider it makes small changes to its products up to 20 times a month and major updates roughly every six months to keep its edge.
Ukrainian companies and foreign firms supplying units are also building weapons that are easier to update, including software-first and modular drones that can be upgraded remotely and more quickly, without pulling them out of service or redesigning them from scratch.
Jaakola said earlier this year that the alliance needs to study how Ukrainian companies get feedback from soldiers and deliver fresh solutions “within weeks,” calling it an “important lesson that we need to learn from Ukraine.”
The West may not need to rely on drones as heavily as Ukraine has, especially because Ukraine has often turned to drones to offset shortages of other weapons. But potential adversaries are investing heavily in the technology, and Western military leaders still see drones as central to future warfare.
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