The pay TV business has been shrinking year after year after year.
But that continual collapse may be ending.
Analysts at MoffettNathanson say they are finally seeing a “floor” at the bottom of the industry’s long side. They think that by 2030, the industry will stay put at around 50 million US subscribers.
That total includes traditional cable TV distributors like Comcast and Charter, as well as newish digital competitors like YouTube TV — which is on track to become the biggest pay TV company in America.
And to be clear: Pay TV continues to shrink. MoffettNathanson says subscriber numbers fell by 4.6% in the second quarter of this year. But the trendline is looking up: That number was a 6.4% loss a year ago.
The fact that the industry currently has about 62 million subscribers, or that it had 100 million subscribers in 2016, shows you what kind of battering Pay TV has endured. You have to be in real pain to consider a 50% drop over 14 years good news — if it finally stops there.
Still, there are a couple lessons to learn from the end of the collapse, if it happens:
- Some people really like sports. Obvious but true: Even though NFL games — the most important programming on TV — as well as other live sports are partially migrating to streamers, you still need a pay TV subscription to watch the bulk of high-profile sports leagues in the US. Lots of people who don’t care about that have already ditched pay TV, or never signed up for it. That leaves a meaningful audience that isn’t going anywhere.
- The bundle is (kind of) back. After years spent atomizing the traditional cable TV bundle, distributors and programmers have been putting it back together, a bit: Distributors like Charter now frequently sell a package that includes traditional live TV networks and streamers like Paramount, Peacock, and Disney Plus, and people seem to like that. As MoffettNathanson notes, Charter was losing 10% of its subscriber base two years ago; now that decline is down to 1%.
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