A war with top US rival China could be a long conflict that would strain resources and capabilities, and the US Army secretary has concerns that American industry isn’t ready.
Last week, Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll spoke to Business Insider about the Army’s priorities amid plans to shift Pentagon focus to the Indo-Pacific region. Both President Donald Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have identified the theater and countering China as a focus.
Driscoll said that the Army’s immediate concerns when it comes to readying for a war with China are “to strengthen our defense industrial base and increase our magazine depth.”
He argued that US industry, which would be critical in a lengthy fight between China and the US, had atrophied in recent decades. Shipbuilding has received a lot of attention, but other industries that are crucial to US warfighting capabilities need revitalization.
“If we go to war with a near-peer or a peer like China, our ability to manufacture at scale over time is what will help us win wars,” said Driscoll, a former armor officer.
American military officials and experts have previously said that the US industrial base would struggle to keep up with building new weapons, ships, and aircraft and repairing damaged ones at the pace needed. Those concerns have been exacerbated by China’s industrial capacity.
In 2023, a study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank based on a series of wargames of an Indo-Pacific conflict, like a war triggered by a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, found that US munition expenditure would exceed stockpiles and manufacturing rate.
CSIS researcher Seth Jones said that the US would likely run out of some critical munitions.
Last year, Chairman John Moolenaar of the House Select Committee on the CCP, told Fox News about a wargaming exercise in which China emerged victorious.
What we learned in a protracted war, our defense industrial base does not have the resources it needs to win that war,” Congressman Moolenaar, a Michigan Republican, said. “It’s stretched thin with different regional conflicts around the world,” he added, “and we need to make sure we shore up so that we can win a war if it were ever necessary.”
The war in Ukraine has shown that protracted conflicts turn on ammunition availability, everything from artillery shells to air defense interceptor missiles. Services and industries have begun working to increase output, but it’s a work in progress.
Earlier this month, a report from The Heritage Foundation think tank argued the US must revitalize its defense industrial base to deter China, and that requires regulatory reform, funding reallocation, and reduction of procurement uncertainty so that American industry can actually meet expected demand.
“To revitalize the defense industrial base, it is critical that Congress, the Department of Defense, and industry implement and adopt policies that increase output, encourage innovation, and secure supply chains,” over half a dozen researchers said. “Failure to do so will jeopardize America’s ability to deter China or, if necessary, go to war,” they wrote.
Driscoll’s comments fall in line with the focuses of Trump, Hegseth, and others who, since the administration took over in January, have signaled that fixing industry problems is a prime concern.
When Hegseth was confirmed, he called for rebuilding the US military by matching threats to capabilities.
He said that “this means reviving our defense industrial base, reforming our acquisition process, passing a financial audit, and rapidly fielding emerging technologies.”
Revitalizing the defense industry isn’t something that is going to happen overnight. Many of these problems run deep, going back decades, and have persisted despite previous attempts to address them.
If China and the US do go toe-to-toe in the Pacific, Driscoll said the Army would remain “the backbone of operations” for large-scale ground combat operations and continue innovating to support the larger US military.
“We are taking it very seriously,” Driscoll said. “Whatever role the Army has against China, we believe it will be one of the core roles for what will likely be a long, drawn-out war. Once everyone settles into their defensive postures, it will be the Army that helps sustain the US.”
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