Here’s a quiz: Three multiple-choice questions about how long you’ll live in retirement. Before you scroll ahead to the answers, actually try to answer each one.
Researchers from the TIAA Institute and Stanford University asked 3,371 Americans the same questions. Only 6% got all three right. Six out of every 100 people.
Here’s why that matters — and following, the quiz.
Why getting this wrong is a financial disaster
Before we get to the questions, understand what the researchers found about the people who answered incorrectly.
Workers who think they’ll spend fewer than 10 years in retirement save less. A lot less. Only 48% of them save on a regular basis at all, and just 11% save more than 10% of their income.
Compare that to workers who expect 30 or more years in retirement: 71% save regularly, and 41% save more than 10% of their income.
That’s not a small gap. That’s the difference between a retirement that works and one that doesn’t. Take a look at how much people have saved for retirement at every age and you’ll see just how thin the margin already is.
And it gets worse. Workers who underestimate how long they’ll live are also less likely to calculate how much they’ll need (27% versus 51%), less likely to seek professional advice (12% versus 29%), and more likely to have given little or no thought to how they’ll actually turn their savings into income.
More than 60% of savers who expect short retirements have given little or no thought to how they’ll live off their money.
According to the TIAA Institute, the root cause is simple: People who believe they’ll have short retirements act accordingly. The problem is, they’re wrong about how long they’ll live — and they’re wrong because they don’t understand basic facts about longevity. That’s exactly what these three questions test.
Question 1: How long does a 65-year-old actually live?
Here’s the first question the researchers asked. Men were asked about men, women about women:
On average in the U.S., how long will a 65-year-old man live?
- About 17 more years (to age 82)
- About 22 more years (to age 87)
- About 27 more years (to age 92)
- Don’t know
The answer for men is about 17 more years — to around age 82. For women, it’s about 19 to 20 more years, to around age 84 or 85. That’s straight from the Social Security Administration’s actuarial tables.
Only 33% of Americans got this right. A third underestimated it. Nearly a quarter said they had no idea.
Here’s what that means for you: The average person who retires at 65 today needs almost two decades of income. That’s not a quick trip — it’s a 17-to-20-year financial plan.
And if you’re thinking “I probably won’t make it that long anyway,” hold that thought. That’s what Question 3 is about.
Question 2: What are the odds of living to 90?
In the U.S., what’s the likelihood that a 65-year-old man will live at least to age 90?
- About 20% (2 in 10)
- About 40% (4 in 10)
- About 60% (6 in 10)
- Don’t know
The answer is about 20% for men and about 30% for women.
Only 31% got this right. Another 30% underestimated those odds, and 25% admitted they didn’t know.
Sit with that for a second. There’s roughly a 1-in-5 chance that a man reaching 65 today will still be alive at 90. For women, it’s almost 1 in 3.
That’s potentially 25 years of retirement. Is your savings plan built to survive that?
If you’re counting on Social Security alone, the answer is almost certainly no. If you haven’t thought about how to convert your 401(k) or IRA into a reliable income stream that doesn’t run dry, you’re not alone — but you’re in a dangerous spot.
Question 3: What are the odds of dying young?
In the U.S., what’s the likelihood that a 65-year-old man will not live beyond age 70?
- About 1% (1 in 100)
- About 5% (5 in 100)
- About 10% (10 in 100)
- Don’t know
The answer is about 5% — for both men and women.
Only 26% answered this correctly. A full 30% overestimated the likelihood of dying young — meaning they assumed death before 70 was far more common than it actually is.
This is the trickiest misconception of all. People who assume they’ll die young plan for short retirements. They save less, invest less aggressively, and skip income planning entirely.
Here’s the math they’re ignoring: 95% of people who reach 65 will still be alive at 70. If you’re one of the people who assumed otherwise, you may be funding a 5-year retirement while you’re actually in one that’ll last 25.
How this one blind spot cascades into financial ruin
Here’s how the sequence plays out: You underestimate how long 65-year-olds typically live → you assume you’ll have a short retirement → you save less → you do less planning → and then you’re 80 years old, short on cash, and out of good options.
That’s not a hypothetical. The researchers documented exactly this chain of cause and effect, across thousands of respondents, in multiple years of data.
The cruel part is that the people who most need to save more are precisely the ones doing the least. Workers with the shortest retirement expectations are the least likely to seek advice, the least likely to run the numbers, and the most likely to treat “retirement planning” as something they can deal with later.
As we’ve covered in “The Longevity Revolution May Mean Your Retirement Is Healthy, Lengthy and Broke,” the promise of a longer life “comes with a financial cost that most Americans have not yet planned for.” These survey results show exactly why.
What to do now that you know
Don’t be too hard on yourself if you missed one. Most people did. But now that you have the right numbers, use them.
First, recalibrate your time horizon. If you’re 65 today, plan for at least 20 years of retirement income. If you’re in good health with long-lived parents, plan for 25 to 30. Build your budget around that reality, not around a birth-year life expectancy average that doesn’t apply to you.
Second, save more — now, not later. If you’re still working, this is the single highest-leverage thing you can do. Start with these 23 ways to boost your retirement savings, even if you can only act on a handful.
Third, think seriously about income conversion. This is what most people ignore: Turning a lump sum into monthly income that doesn’t run out. Social Security timing, annuities, and systematic withdrawal strategies are all tools for this. Use one of the best life expectancy calculators to get a personalized sense of how long your money needs to hold up.
Fourth, get professional help if you don’t have it. Among workers who expect long retirements — the ones who understand these numbers — 29% have consulted a financial professional in the past two years. Among those expecting short retirements, only 12% have.
Don’t be in the 12%.
If you have $100,000 or more invested, check out SmartAsset. It’s a free service that instantly matches you with up to three vetted fiduciaries — advisors legally bound to work in your best interest — and first appointments are typically free.
Bottom line? The questions in this quiz aren’t trivia. They’re the foundation of a retirement plan. And now you know the answers.
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