Larry Fink laid out two outcomes from the Iran war: abundance and growth, or a global recession.
Speaking on the BBC’s “Big Boss Interview” podcast on Wednesday, BlackRock CEO Fink said the outcome hinges on what happens next with Iran. If the country comes out of the war accepted by the global community and able to bring its oil back to market, that could boost supply and push prices lower.
But if Iran continues to pose a threat to trade, the Strait of Hormuz, and regional stability, oil prices could stay above $100 for the long term.
“Everybody has to recognize there’s not going to be an outcome that’s somewhere in the middle. It’s going to either be two extremes,” he said.
The US hasn’t meaningfully imported crude or petroleum from Iran since 1979, according to the Energy Information Administration, after decades of sanctions.
Fink said a more open Iranian government could bring “Iranian oil back into the marketplace,” helping drive prices back down to prewar levels and easing costs for consumers and businesses.
If that doesn’t happen, though, and Iran doesn’t move closer diplomatically to the US, Europe, and Gulf states, oil could climb toward $150 a barrel, with “profound implications” for the global economy.
“The $40 oil implication is one of abundance and growth. The other one is an outcome of probably a stark and steep recession,” said Fink.
Rising energy prices are a ‘regressive tax’
After the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran over three weeks ago, Iran has responded with strikes on Israel, Gulf states, US bases, and, crucially for oil markets, cargo vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
This has led to a significant drop in traffic through the strait, which transits 20% of the world’s oil and LNG supply. Oil has spiked by as much as 60% since the start of the war and has fluctuated with the perceived likelihood of peace negotiations — jumping on escalations, and falling when a solution looks more likely.
“Rising energy prices are a very regressive tax,” Fink said. “It affects the poor more than the wealthy, because it’s a larger component of their pocketbook.”
The spike in oil prices is already being felt across the world — from the price of gas at the pump to flight tickets.
On Friday last week, the International Energy Agency outlined a range of measures that governments, businesses, and households could take to mitigate the impact of oil market disruptions.
These include working from home where possible and avoiding air travel.
Fink said countries, including the US, need to use the oil and gas that they have, but should “aggressively” lean into alternative energy sources, such as solar.
The BlackRock CEO said in the interview that he is a proponent of solar energy and that the US needs to “fully embrace solar.”
Fink had said in his 2022 letter to CEOs said the next 1,000 unicorns will be companies making “the energy transition affordable for all consumers.”
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