Getting stuck at the airport after a canceled flight could become a little less painful — if you can profit from it.
Kalshi is looking to open up a new prediction market that could turn airport departure boards into a fresh trading arena. According to a Tuesday filing with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the company has filed to offer contracts tied to flight cancellations.
The contracts will let users bet on percentages of how many flights are canceled at specific airports, given a fixed timeframe, per Kalshi’s filing.
The prediction markets platform lists FlightAware as its primary data source. The Transportation Department’s statistics are listed as a secondary source, but only if FlightAware is “unavailable or does not publish a usable figure.”
There’s a bit of a snag, though. FlightAware says Kalshi won’t be allowed to use its data.
“No company is — or will be — authorized to use the data collected through the FlightAware network for this purpose,” a spokesperson for FlightAware’s parent company, RTX, told Business Insider in a statement on Wednesday. “Any customer who uses FlightAware in violation of the terms of use will have their account terminated.”
A Kalshi spokesperson told Business Insider that the market is not live yet — and while it “has utility in hedging travel related risk,” the company is still evaluating it.
Kalshi’s filing comes amid the US summer travel rush, when Americans are set to pack crowded airports, all while contending with thunderstorms and operational disruptions that can snarl schedules.
These flight-related prediction markets could turn one of the most vexing parts of travel into a tradable bet. Prediction markets function on contracts, where people can bet on everything from pop culture events and the weather to major events like Federal Reserve decisions.
The industry has drawn strong criticism from lawmakers, who have said that companies like Kalshi and Polymarket enable insider trading, particularly in areas like sports and politics. Several lawmakers in multiple states have proposed bills that range from limits to outright bans on prediction markets.
In response, Kalshi has put guardrails in place to prevent insider trading. For one, users must submit employment verification before they can trade. The platform preemptively blocks politicians, athletes, and other relevant people from trading in certain political and sports markets, the company said in March.
CEO Tarek Mansour said in June that insider trading is a bigger threat to the traditional stock market than to prediction markets.
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