YouTube TV subscribers are dealing with one of the longest blackouts in recent history, but there’s reason to believe the Disney-Google beef could end soon.
Disney and YouTube haven’t budged in a standoff over how much TV networks like ESPN and ABC are worth. Both sides are playing the blame game, with Disney accusing Google-owned YouTube of abusing its market power, and YouTube saying the Mouse House is pushing rates that will force it to hike prices again.
This blackout is now on its 13th day, which ties the Disney-DirecTV stalemate in 2024 for Disney’s longest dispute. Disney had previously taken its channels off Charter’s Spectrum for 11 days in 2023 and Dish Network for a few days in 2022.
The longest major carriage dispute in modern history was a nearly three-year showdown between HBO and Dish, which lasted from November 2018 until July 2021. Otherwise, Nexstar’s affiliate stations were off DirecTV for over two months in 2023.
Both Disney and YouTube TV have reasons for confidence in the hands they’re holding, and gripes about unfair advantages the other has. Disney controls several top alternatives to YouTube TV, like Fubo and Hulu + Live TV, while YouTube TV is backed by $3.5 trillion Alphabet.
Some media analysts suspect the fight won’t last much longer, given its steep cost. Rich Greenfield of Lightshed Partners said he thought there would be a deal before Disney’s earnings report on Thursday.
“I can’t imagine Disney going into earnings on Thursday without a deal,” Greenfield told Puck’s John Ourand on Monday. Greenfield added that the TV business “is such a big part of ESPN’s revenues and profits,” so he “can’t fathom getting on the earnings call and being dark still.”
Joe Bonner from Argus Research told Business Insider on Monday that he was “a little surprised” that there hadn’t been a deal. The Disney-YouTube TV deadlock has blown past key events that typically end these carriage disputes, like two weekends of college football and a pair of “Monday Night Football” games.
“The prospect of missing an NFL game typically creates enough subscriber discontent to bring parties to the table, though that doesn’t seem to be happening in this case,” Bonner said.
Disney CEO Bob Iger had a chance to give an update on negotiations with YouTube TV in an appearance on Peyton and Eli Manning’s altcast of ESPN’s “Monday Night Football.”
But neither former NFL star put Iger on the hot seat. If there’s no deal with YouTube before Disney’s earnings call on Thursday at 8:30 ET, analysts certainly won’t give the same courtesy.
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