Kalshi is ramping up its media partnerships with a new CNBC deal.
The popular prediction site has a new multi-year partnership with the business news giant that will put Kalshi’s real-time prediction data across CNBC’s channel, site, and app, starting in 2026.
Kalshi reached a similar data integration deal with CNN on Tuesday. That day, Kalshi also announced that it had raised $1 billion from investors at an $11 billion valuation.
The terms of the two partnerships weren’t disclosed, but a person familiar with the deals said that money is changing hands in both. Axios reported that Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said CNN isn’t paying to license Kalshi’s data. Kalshi disputed that Mansour said that to Axios.
Prediction markets like Kalshi and rival Polymarket let users trade contracts about the outcomes of events — from elections to sports games, or even whether it will rain in a city before a certain date.
CNBC viewers will be able to see what Kalshi users believe are the probabilities of different market and economic outcomes, such as whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its next meeting, based on the way those users are trading contracts. The financial news outlet will also feature a Kalshi-branded ticker during select TV segments on shows such as “Squawk Box” and “Fast Money.” Kalshi will have a CNBC-branded page on its website.
Mansour said in a statement that the CNBC partnership is “the next evolution: moving from data about what’s happening now, to real-time forecasts about what’s happening next.”
CNBC President KC Sullivan said in a statement that “prediction markets are rapidly shaping how investors and business leaders think about important events.”
“Kalshi’s data will serve as a powerful complement to CNBC’s reporting and help people stay better informed about the world around them,” he added.
Real-time markets data — like stock prices — have been a staple of CNBC for decades. The business news network is now turning to predictions data to help keep users engaged.
News organizations like CNBC could see engagement rise if viewers and readers connect to prediction data as way to gamify news. Prediction sites “can be highly engaging” since they can “create a feeling of being connected to real events as they unfold,” said Daniel Umfleet, the CEO of telehealth service Kindbridge Behavioral Health, which works with gamblers.
Prediction sites could also turn into a new revenue stream for media companies, similar to how sports betting ads are now ubiquitous across sports networks and podcasts.
Kalshi isn’t the only prediction site striking deals. Rival Polymarket reached a prediction data integration deal with Yahoo Finance in mid-November, and earlier this year became the official prediction market service for X, formerly known as Twitter. Polymarket and Kalshi also reached prediction data deals with Google in November.
Partnerships with major news organizations are beneficial for Kalshi since they’re “a form of brand building,” Morningstar gaming analyst Dan Wasiolek told Business Insider.
Prediction markets are popular but getting pushback
Prediction sites are increasingly popular. Kalshi announced in early December that its trading volume had risen eightfold since July.
Prediction markets have also drawn controversy, particularly around their similarities to gambling.
Kalshi and Polymarket are similar to online sportsbooks in the sense that they allow users to profit from predictions on the outcomes of events like games. However, they are classified as exchange markets for futures contracts that are regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Instead of setting odds, these prediction markets price contracts and facilitate trades between their users.
Since Kalshi and Polymarket aren’t sportsbooks, the platforms argue that they shouldn’t be regulated at the state level. That said, some state regulators have targeted them.
In late November, a US District Court judge in Nevada ruled against Kalshi, saying “Kalshi is not licensed to conduct gaming in Nevada or any other state” and that the company was trying to “evade state regulation.” Kalshi disputed this characterization and has appealed the ruling.
On Wednesday, the gaming division of Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection issued a cease and desist order for Kalshi and investment platforms Robinhood and Crypto.com, calling their prediction markets “unlicensed online gambling” and saying they were “operating outside a regulatory environment.”
“As other courts have recognized, Kalshi is a regulated, nationwide exchange for real-world events, and it is subject to exclusive federal jurisdiction,” Kalshi said in a statement. “It’s very different from what state-regulated sportsbooks and casinos offer their customers. We are confident in our legal arguments and have filed suit in federal court.”
A class action lawsuit filed late last month similarly claimed Kalshi had violated state gambling laws. Kalshi disputes the claim. The case is ongoing.
If similar legal cases continue, the Supreme Court may eventually have to rule whether prediction markets like Kalshi should be legal in all 50 states.
Prediction markets are upsetting sportsbooks
Sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings have responded to the success of Kalshi and Polymarket by announcing plans to launch their own competing prediction sites. Robinhood is also extending its prediction markets, which it said last week were its fastest-growing product line by revenue.
The prediction market landscape is “even more ‘Wild West’ than sports betting” because of the lack of clarity around regulation, said Rachel Volberg, a gambling researcher and professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
Morningstar’s Wasiolek said he thought prediction markets would have a positive impact on sportsbooks, and that they would “expand the market more than cannibalize it.” But he added that the sportsbooks’ shift into prediction markets could raise their costs in what’s “an increasingly uncertain and competitive landscape.”
Read the full article here
