When Kamala Harris took up Joe Biden’s mantle last month and launched her campaign for president, she did so knowing that she’d have an abbreviated run leading up to the election.
While some speculated that a shortened campaign could hurt her odds of winning, giving her little time to introduce her platform and ingratiate herself with voters and deep-pocketed fundraisers, two political experts told Business Insider that a brief run could benefit Harris.
Alison Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University, told BI that, with about three months left until the election, there’s just not much time for the Harris campaign to make big mistakes or exhaust its goodwill among voters.
Harris’ campaign started with sighs of relief from Democratic voters over Biden dropping out and instant enthusiasm that contributed to Harris’ record-breaking fundraising efforts, Dagnes, who focuses on political media, said.
Dagnes said even more momentum could be built from the much-anticipated news surrounding Harris’ pick for her running mate, which has already generated excitement thanks to a deep bench of telegenic Democrats who appear to be up for the job.
Then, it’s on to the Democratic party’s convention in Chicago, where CNN reports President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama are expected to speak on Harris’s behalf. Shortly after that, the end of summer, Labor Day, and Halloween will roll around, and the election will be upon us — without time for Harris’s momentum to subside.
Harris has the youth’s attention
Sergio José Gutiérrez, the chief executive of Espora, a digital political advising firm that has managed over 140 gubernatorial and presidential campaigns around the world, said the vice president is enjoying a boost in the polls and near ubiquity online as a meme queen touted by younger voters. That support from a younger demographic could prove particularly significant in the months ahead.
“Young people represent a strategic sector for Kamala for two reasons,” Gutiérrez told BI. “First, Donald Trump’s strategy does not seem to intend to consider them as a strong voter base, following his statements of support for religious sectors that deviate significantly from the youth agenda, leaving them adrift.”
He added: “Second, Kamala’s ideals and speeches align with the interests and struggles of young people, making her the representation they seek for the current urgencies mobilizing Generation Z.”
Gutiérrez noted that the youth segment represents one-fifth of the national electorate and has seen a significant increase in voting presence since 2016. His current estimates suggest a 57% participation rate out of the 52.8 million in the country, largely in favor of Harris.
‘This road trip ain’t that long’
If Harris were running a longer campaign, Dagnes said that seeking engagement from chronically online youth voters may have time to become a strategic liability, like Hillary Clinton’s hamhanded “Pokemon Go to the polls” bit during her 2016 bid.
She said, however, “No one was feeling a big gasp of relief about Hillary. This is far more organic and authentic.”
“All of that reminds me of the first half hour of a really long road trip where everyone’s very excited — by hour 4, no one has that energy anymore,” Dagnes told BI, adding: “This road trip ain’t that long.”
The short campaign’s benefits aren’t just limited to high enthusiasm among likely Harris voters but also hampers the strategy for former president Donald Trump’s crusade against her, Dagnes noted.
Trump was well prepared to take on Biden in the campaign and had established a well-worn set of attacks against him that were effective among Trump’s base. With Harris at the helm, the former president has been left trying out new attacks against her, many of which have backfired. While trying to size up Harris, Trump has made unforced errors that may have done more to damage his own campaign than hinder hers.
In his attempts to find attacks that stick against Harris, Trump received widespread condemnation by questioning her racial identity after he said the Black and Indian candidate who attended Howard University, a historically Black college, “happened to turn Black” when he said it became politically advantageous.
Trump has also tried several lackluster nicknames against Harris, like “Laffin’ Kamala Harris” and “Cackling Copilot Kamala Harris,” which haven’t gained traction like “Sleepy Joe” did against Biden.
With just over 90 days until the election, it’s unclear what line of criticism will prove most effective against Harris, and Trump doesn’t have much time to experiment.
Gutiérrez told BI he believes that, overall, the shortened campaign appears advantageous for Harris — though she has to be mindful to speak substantively about issues important to voters and not rely on her viral online fame to propel her across the finish line.
“The strong engagement and positive public perception generated by her campaign activities indicate that a concentrated effort in the final stretch could sustain and even amplify her momentum,” Gutiérrez said. “By maintaining a high level of visibility and continuing to address key voter issues, Harris is well-positioned to leverage the remaining campaign period effectively.”
Read the full article here
