Maybe Thanksgiving travel won’t be total chaos after all.
Flyers have been on a rollercoaster since the government shutdown on October 1, which has forced air traffic controllers to work without pay for 43 days.
Things began to further spiral on Friday, when government officials started cutting 10% of flights across 40 US airports to manage traffic.
Hundreds of thousands of people have been affected by the mass cancellations, and experts warned the busy holiday season would further strain the airspace — but it appears the impacts are reducing, as a deal to end the shutdown appears close.
Data from the aviation analytics company Cirium shows there were about 1,200 cancellations on Tuesday, representing about 5.2% of scheduled flights. That is down from the 2,240 on Monday (8.7%) and the about 2,630 on Sunday (10.2%) — the worst day since the cuts began.
Aviation data website Flightaware shows that as of 11:30 a.m. on Wednesday, about 900 flights within, into, or out of the US have been canceled.
On-time performance is on the rise, too. About 83% of flights departed within 15 minutes of their scheduled time on Tuesday. Cirium said that’s “above to above average.” It’s also far better than the nearly 40% of flights that left late on Sunday and Monday.
Friday and Saturday were better but still lagging: 77% and 71% of flights left on time, respectively.
What may have helped — beyond the controllers’ commitment to show up despite two $0 paychecks — was the government’s decision to bar private jets from flying into 12 major airports. This provided some breathing room in the US’ busiest hubs.
If this positive trend continues and the shutdown ends this week, as the House prepares to vote on a funding bill, the strained travel system could return to a semblance of normality before the surge in Thanksgiving travel.
That’s if airlines and airports can rebound quickly after the government reopens.
Henry Harteveldt, president and aviation strategist at Atmosphere Research Group, told Business Insider that operations may take seven to 14 days to recover.
“This is not a rubber band, so it’s not going to snap back,” he said.
Still, with Thanksgiving two weeks away, travelers might finally have a reason to hope the only disruptions they’ll face are the regular crowds and weather.
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