The Bureau of Labor Statistics published new consumer price index data last Wednesday, showing the inflation rate held steady at 2.4% in February as expected. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also held steady at 2.5%.
However, that report was based on data mainly gathered before the start of the Iran war, which could heat up inflation and jeopardize progress toward the 2% goal. Economists expect to see the effects of the oil shock from the Iran war as soon as the next report.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics published new consumer price index data last Wednesday, showing the inflation rate held steady at 2.4% in February as expected. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also held steady at 2.5%.
However, that report was based on data mainly gathered before the start of the Iran war, which could heat up inflation and jeopardize progress toward the 2% goal. Economists expect to see the effects of the oil shock from the Iran war as soon as the next report.
Oil prices remain elevated as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed off. Gas prices are up from a month ago, and there are other factors affecting what consumers pay at the pump, such as higher demand in the spring.
Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global co-chief investment officer of multi-asset solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said February data “was collected before the conflict in Iran sent crude oil surging roughly 30%, with natural gas, aluminum, fertilizer, freight rates, and shipping insurance moving higher with it.”
“The Strait of Hormuz remains the wildcard, and if disruption is sustained, the inflation improvement embedded in today’s print could reverse quickly,” Wilson-Elizondo said in commentary following the CPI report.
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