If you think you’re about to get another stimulus check in the mail from Uncle Sam, think again.
First, it was the “DOGE Dividend.” Now, it’s a rebate check paid for by tariff revenue.
President Donald Trump said on Friday that he’s “thinking about a little rebate” for Americans of “a certain income level.” That would require an act of Congress, so Republican Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri introduced a bill on Monday that would send $600 tax rebate checks to lower-income Americans.
Yet the proposal faces some of the same headwinds that quickly scuttled the DOGE check idea earlier this year: Most Republicans simply don’t like it.
“It’ll never pass,” Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio flatly told reporters on Tuesday, rejecting the idea. “We have a $37 trillion debt.”
Trump also didn’t propose the idea himself, but was responding to an idea floated by a reporter.
“You just made a lot of news,” Trump told the reporter at the time.
It’s similar to what happened in December, when Trump said he’d “consider” raising the minimum wage after being asked about it by a reporter, or when he said DOGE checks were “under consideration.”
Ultimately, both ideas ended up fizzling.
How the tariff rebate check would work
Trump’s tariffs, ever-changing as they are, have brought in some additional revenue. The rebate check is one proposal for how to spend it.
According to US Treasury data, the federal government has collected over $100 billion from customs duties so far this year, and Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month that the US could be on track to collect $300 billion this year.
Hawley’s bill would use that money to provide checks of at least $600 for each individual and dependent child in a family. Thus, a family of four would receive at least $2,400.
The bill also allows for larger checks if the tariff revenue soars higher than current projections, which Hawley’s office estimates to be around $150 billion.
It’s designed to primarily benefit lower-income Americans: the rebate would be phased out for joint filers making more than $150,000, a household head making more than $112,500, and an individual making more than $75,000.
“I mean, who better to benefit from that than working people who could use a break?” Hawley asked reporters at the Capitol on Tuesday.
At the very least, Hawley’s legislation does not suffer from the same math problem that beset the $5,000 DOGE checks, which were based on Elon Musk’s lofty and ultimately unrealistic expectation of $2 trillion in savings as the result of cost-cutting.
Hawley’s plan is modeled after the pandemic-era stimulus check programs. The second round of stimulus checks, which were also $600 per person, ultimately cost roughly $141 billion, according to Internal Revenue Service data.
Hawley said he had not yet spoken with Trump about the idea. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
‘It’s the dumbest idea I’ve ever heard’
For the most part, other GOP senators say they’d prefer to use tariff revenue elsewhere.
Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky said the idea was “ridiculous” given the size of the national debt, which currently stands at more than $37 trillion.
“We’re gonna basically borrow money to send it to the American people? There is no rebate if there’s no money,” Paul said. “I mean, it’s the dumbest idea I’ve ever heard.”
“Well, when we have a surplus, I’d be all for it,” said Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin said of the tariff rebate checks. “But we’re $37 trillion in debt, running a deficit that’s about $2 trillion as far as the eye can see. I would oppose it.”
Sen. Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming told BI she’d also prefer to see any tariff revenue be used to pay down the debt — or to fund a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
“You can take at least a portion of those tariff revenues, hold them in reserve, and they would appreciate in value at a pace that far exceeds any other asset,” Lummis said. “I think rebating it is not as good an idea as either paying down the debt or saving it in a reserve. I think it’s kind of a lost opportunity.”
For Hawley, a self-styled populist who recently introduced a bill to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour, the proposal is another attempt to focus attention on the GOP’s working-class base.
“Why shouldn’t working people benefit from the president’s policies, is my question to my fellow Republicans,” Hawley said.
For now, he appears to be going it alone, telling reporters he’s not aware of any GOP colleagues who also support the idea.
“I don’t know, good question,” Hawley said. “Let me know if you find somebody.”
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