China’s population is shrinking — and the decline is accelerating.
The country’s population fell for the fourth year in a row, falling by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion people in 2025, according to new data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
Its birth rate hit its lowest level on record — 5.63 per 1,000 people — since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, while the death rate climbed to 8.04 per 1,000 people. The number of babies born in the country dropped to 7.92 million, down from 9.54 million in 2024.
The United Nations predicted in 2024 that China’s population could fall as low as 663 million — less than half its current population — by 2100, if birth rates continue to decline and immigration stays low.
If things don’t change, China’s shrinking and aging population poses serious long-term risks for the country’s economy. It could mean a much smaller workforce, weaker demand for goods and services such as housing, and mounting pressure on pension and healthcare systems. A smaller working-age population in China could also hurt the global economy, which has relied on China’s booming productivity and economic growth.
China reported that its economy grew by 5% last year, meeting its official growth target. The country also logged a record trade surplus in 2025, despite President Donald Trump’s tariffs. However, it’s struggling with soaring unemployment among young people and an ongoing oversupply of housing, which has tanked property values, hurting consumer spending and slowing investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate.
The population of mainland China began shrinking in 2022, when it declined by 850,000 people after years of falling birth rates. That year marked the first time the country’s population had declined since a major famine killed an estimated 30 million people during Mao Zedong’s failed Great Leap Forward in the early 1960s.
China’s demographic challenges have unfolded faster than the government once anticipated. The government has loosened previous restrictions to counter the effect, dropping the one-child policy a decade ago to allow families to have two children. Five years ago, it began allowing three children.
In recent years, the government has raced to lift the fertility rate by offering financial incentives to parents, tightening access to abortions, and, more recently, imposing new taxes on contraceptives, including birth control and condoms. There is little evidence these efforts have been successful at lifting birth rates.
Though its situation is serious, China is far from alone in declining fertility. Birth rates are falling in countries around the world, particularly in higher-income nations, including the US. Fertility rates below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 births per woman are “becoming the global norm,” according to a report by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. This has sparked similar economic concerns about a shrinking workforce and a growing elderly population.
The US has a slightly rosier population forecast than other major economies, as it’s set to grow slightly due to immigration.
Read the full article here
