When it comes to measuring the frontrunner in the generative AI race, the answer depends on which data you look at, and how you think about that information.
OpenAI’s ChatGPT is either crushing Google — or the startup is way behind. Who ultimately wins will depend a lot on distribution, and less on the quality of the technology (which is pretty similar these days).
Proving this last point: The leaderboard shifts dramatically depending on whether you’re measuring pure app data or broader platform distribution.
ChatGPT looks like it’s in the lead
Based strictly on native app usage, particularly daily active users, or DAUs, ChatGPT is clearly in the lead.
As of March 2025, Google’s own internal disclosures (shared during the Google vs. DOJ remedy trial) peg Gemini at about 35 million DAUs. In contrast, ChatGPT has roughly 160 million DAUs, according to estimates Barclays analysts shared with investors on Thursday. That’s more than four times Gemini’s count.
Those figures likely undercount ChatGPT’s true scale. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman revealed in April that ChatGPT has 500 million weekly active users, a broader metric than DAUs but one that suggests even higher usage.
Gemini’s launch timeline shows a late start compared to ChatGPT: It didn’t roll out to iOS globally until November 2024, almost 18 months after ChatGPT hit iPhones. Google called it Bard to start with. Then fiddled and finally changed the name, and that confusion probably didn’t help with consumer adoption.
Tipping the AI scales
Yet when you zoom out from stand-alone apps and factor in Google’s entire ecosystem, the scale tips dramatically.
Google Search still dwarfs ChatGPT, boasting over 2 billion monthly active users, or MAUs, and around 1.5 billion DAUs. Even as ChatGPT’s user base grows, reaching roughly 10% of Search DAUs by March 2025, Google’s entrenched presence through Search and its integration into Android remain unmatched.
Indeed, Gemini’s recent growth, with DAUs almost quadrupling since October 2024, is largely attributed to pre-installation deals on Android devices, rather than organic downloads. This mirrors the historical distribution dominance of Google Search, where massive reach through default status on billions of devices (including iPhones) played a key role in its success.
This distribution advantage is precisely what makes comparisons tricky. ChatGPT’s user numbers likely reflect its first-mover advantage and OpenAI’s ability to keep moving quickly with new features, such as the stunning image-generation capabilities rolled out earlier this year.
Gemini’s AI chatbot features, on the other hand, are being weaved into Google Search. That will give the technology pretty immediate access to more than 2 billion monthly users and about 1.5 billion daily users. That’s arguably the Western world’s most powerful online distribution channel right there!
Then, Google is also trying to get Gemini baked into billions of Android devices, through distribution deals with manufacturers such as Samsung. Gemini also comes preinstalled on some Chromebooks now, for instance. Those are other incredibly powerful distribution channels that made Google’s mobile search even more dominant — and they could do the same for Gemini.
Altman knows how important distribution is. He’s recently floated OpenAI buying Google’s Chrome web browser, as the DOJ is pushing Google to sell this asset. (Chrome is another powerful way Google bakes its Search engine into our daily digital lives.)
So, who’s winning?
If you measure by raw engagement in an AI-native setting, ChatGPT is decisively ahead. But if you include platform-scale distribution, particularly through Android and Search, Google’s reach creates a powerful competitive lever — one it has long wielded effectively across product categories.
One awkward wrinkle for Google, though: The DOJ is attacking Google’s distribution strategies, which could make attempts to bundle Gemini tightly into Search and Android more tricky. A Google spokesman didn’t respond to a request for comment on Thursday.
In the end, this isn’t a one-horse race. It’s a question of ecosystems versus apps, of organic pull versus default power. As regulation continues to chip away at Google’s bundling strategies and OpenAI expands its own integrations, the gap may narrow. And it’s fair to say that ChatGPT has made up major ground on Google, especially lately.
But for now, the scoreboard depends entirely on where you’re looking.
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