First, the war made flights more expensive. Now, it’s making them disappear.
The US and Israel’s war on Iran has disrupted supply chains, trapping oil in storage facilities across the Middle East. That has caused the price of oil to rocket past $100 a barrel, and its availability to diminish.
Jet fuel prices, as a result, reached $195 at the end of March, up nearly $100 from the end of February when the war began. And as the war drags on, jet fuel is getting harder to come by for countries that don’t produce their own or have limited supplies.
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Biro said during a podcast interview earlier this week that the loss of oil in April would be twice what was lost in March, resulting in a growing scarcity of jet fuel and diesel.
“We are seeing that in Asia, but soon, I think, in April or May, it would come to Europe,” he said.
June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said in a post on X that jet fuel requires specialized storage, which means there is less stored than other products, like gasoline.
“Travel has gotten a lot more expensive in Asia, with many airlines adding fuel surcharges or downright canceling flights,” she wrote. “Europe is facing imminent jet fuel supply shortages. Brace yourselves.”
Argus Media, a data analytics company for the energy industry, said in a report this week that “the UK is the most exposed country in Europe to tightening diesel and jet fuel supply.”
Here’s a look at some of the airlines that have already started canceling flights due to rising prices and falling supplies.
European airlines
Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline, said it is considering reducing routes.
CEO Michael O’Leary said its jet fuel supply could be at risk if the war continues during an interview with Sky News this week.
“We don’t expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June,” he said.
Lufthansa is also prepping for the worst, a spokesperson told Bloomberg. The company has teams developing crisis response plans, and could ground up to 40 aircraft, the spokesperson said.
A spokesperson for Scandinavian Airlines said it would cut about 1,000 flights due to the surge in jet fuel costs, The Wall Street Journal reported.
“The sharp increase in fuel costs is affecting the entire European aviation system,” a spokesperson told the outlet in March.
The spokesperson said most of the canceled flights were on short-haul routes in the Nordic region, and that they chose airports with multiple flights a day. The airline has also temporarily raised its prices.
United Airlines
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said in a recent memo to staff that the company would cut flights over the next two quarters.
“In the short term, that means tactically pruning flying that’s temporarily unprofitable in the face of high oil prices,” Kirby said.
The airline will cancel some off-peak flights and red-eyes.
“If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11 billion in annual expense just for jet fuel,” Kirby said in a message to employees posted on the company’s website. “For perspective, in United’s best year ever, we made less than $5B.”
Air New Zealand
Air New Zealand said it would cut about 5% its flights, or about 1,100, at the start of May.
“We’re focused on consolidating flights that are off-peak flying hours, for example, or where there is an alternative that we can re-accommodate customers,” CEO Nikhil Ravishankar told 1News, a local outlet, in March.
Vietnam Airlines
Several airlines in Vietnam announced they would cut flights to mitigate fuel shortages and mounting costs.
Vietnam Airlines suspended seven domestic flight routes beginning April 1, a local state-run newspaper reported, according to Reuters. The outlet reported that Vietnam Airlines will slash flight volume by 10% to 20% a month over the next financial quarter if jet fuel prices rise to $160 to $200 per barrel.
Other local airlines, including Vietjet Air and Bamboo Airways, will also cut flights.
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