The US and its allies in the Middle East are now facing a drone threat similar to what Ukraine has been fighting, but geography limits how closely they can replicate Ukraine’s defenses.
Amid the war with the US and Israel, Iran has launched Shahed drones and missiles at targets across the region. The countries in the crosshairs have been turning to Ukrainian air defense expertise to counter the threat.
Ukraine has experienced one of the most intense air defense fights in decades, including battling Shaheds and the homemade Russian versions. It has developed new skills and weaponry to deal with these threats.
Ukraine says its expertise and technology have been used in recent weeks in the Middle East to down Shaheds and advise partners on strengthening air defenses. Companies that make interceptor drones — low-cost drones designed to stop attack drones — report a surge of interest.
The playbook isn’t likely to completely translate, though, defense experts explained. Ukraine’s drone defense works well because it has space for layered defenses. Gulf states don’t, so they require a somewhat different setup.
One of the ways that those states differ from Ukraine is that “there isn’t a large area of land within which you can put lots of UAV interceptor teams,” Justin Bronk, an airpower expert with the UK’s Royal United Services Institute think tank, told Business Insider.
“Ukraine is able to use its large territory to attrit waves of Russian UAVs before they get to places like Kyiv, in many cases,” he said.
Ukraine is a large country, with more than 233,000 square miles, where missiles and drones often fly long distances over land before reaching targets.
The geography has allowed Ukraine to build layered air defenses, from cheap interceptor drones to advanced surface-to-air missile systems, positioned at different ranges to engage threats well before they reach cities. Mobile units can also reposition to intercept attacks.
That model breaks down in the Middle East.
US partners there are far smaller — the United Arab Emirates is less than 32,000 square miles, and Kuwait is under 7,000 — and many of their most valuable targets, such as major cities, airports, and air facilities, are near the coast.
“A lot of the targets that many of the Gulf states are most keen to protect are right on the coast,” Bronk said, meaning “you can’t really use Ukrainian-style UAV interceptors in belts several tens of kilometers thick with lots and lots of mobile defense teams in order to attrit them before they get to the coast.”
Instead of deep defensive belts, threats arrive almost immediately.
That limits the role of shorter-range systems like interceptor drones and makes air and naval defenses more critical.
Allies are interested in interceptor drones because they are cheaper than traditional air defenses and better matched to low-cost drone threats. Most interceptors in Ukraine cost around $6,000 or less, compared to roughly $50,000 for a Shahed drone and about $3.7 million for a Patriot interceptor missile.
But experts say those systems are only part of the answer.
Douglas Barrie, an air power expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, also told BI that the Middle East likely needs a different mix of air defense layers than what Ukraine uses. Cheaper interceptors are still very useful for those countries, he said, but countries need to decide their air defense mix based on “the nature of your geography.”
Some countries, like Saudi Arabia, are larger and have many valuable sites farther from the coast than countries like the UAE.
Having a large landmass can give militaries “a helpful reaction time.” Instead, the coastal geography means “the threat is pretty much on your doorstep quite quickly.” There is an advantage in debris management to being able to shoot down targets over the sea rather than on land, but the reduced reaction time is a challenge.
There are other challenges for countries seeking to adopt Ukraine’s style of air defenses as well. Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelenskyy and industry representatives have warned that just buying interceptors isn’t enough.
Countries readying for modern air defense battles need strong support systems, good integration, and training. Zelenskyy said it’s something Ukraine can help with. He said some countries had bought Ukrainian interceptors and then returned to Ukraine to ask for help because they lacked the broader support system.
Supply is another constraint.
Agris Kipurs, the CEO of Latvia-based Origin Robotics, which produces interceptor drones used by Ukraine, told Business Insider that before the Iran war, he struggled to convince militaries to adopt interceptor drones. Now, demand is booming.
Ukrainian systems have found success in the region. Zelenskyy shared last week that Ukrainian personnel had shot down drones in multiple countries using domestically made interceptors.
The future of the Iran war is unclear, with a temporary and fragile ceasefire in place; however, the demand for air defenses is unlikely to abate. Ukraine had already demonstrated the need, prompting NATO to make air defense a priority. Now, there’s even more urgency for militaries to be ready for both current and future conflicts.
Read the full article here
