Dubai’s status as a global travel hub and luxury tourist destination is being tested, as the US and Israeli conflict with Iran disrupts air travel.
Just over a week into the war, thousands of flights have been canceled or rerouted, the price of oil has surged, and United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said on Saturday that increases to airfare prices would “probably start quick,” following the spike in fuel prices, CNBC reported.
Oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel this weekend for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, though prices dipped to roughly $86 a barrel late Monday. At the start of 2026, Brent crude oil was roughly $60 per barrel.
Anna Abelson, a professor at New York University, told Business Insider last week that if Dubai loses its reputation as a “safe haven” and “seamless transfer hub,” the effects could ripple throughout the industry. Travelers could look for alternative routes, and, depending on the length of the volatility in the region, airlines could change their routes to layover in other cities instead.
“This is unprecedented,” Abelson said. “We need to brace for impact, sadly.”
Dubai has spent decades building a reputation as an attractive, safe, and luxurious destination for tourists, ultimately becoming one of the most visited cities in the world and one of the busiest travel hubs.
Emirates, known for being one of the most luxurious airlines, has its global hub at the Dubai International Airport, a common layover on itineraries connecting Europe, Africa, and Asia every day.
Dubai International Airport was the second-busiest airport worldwide in 2024 in total number of passengers, just behind Atlanta, according to a report from Airports Council International World. For international passengers specifically, it was the busiest.
Other industry experts agreed that changes to Dubai’s reputation could have reverberating impacts, though they said that its status as a travel hub will depend on how long the conflict drags on and the ultimate outcome of the war.
“It’s tourism 101,” Alan Fyall, a professor at the University of Central Florida and an expert in tourism destination marketing, told Business Insider last week. “Anywhere in the world only works for tourism if you’re stable and you’re safe.”
Fyall said Dubai has been an incredibly safe place to visit, but that many tourists may not have realized its proximity to Iran. That’s likely to change now after Iran targeted the United Arab Emirates city, with strikes damaging the airport and two luxury hotels. Tourists stranded in the city last week could hear loud booms as missiles were intercepted. That could make tourists think twice about visiting, particularly during times of increased tensions.
Karen and Bob Carifee, a married couple from Texas. got stuck in Dubai last week after their cruise was canceled. The couple said they. heard missiles get intercepted and witnessed the luxury Fairmont get damaged.
It’s unclear how long the war will last. President Donald Trump previously said it could last weeks. On Monday, he said the war was “very complete, pretty much,” but later suggested there was more to do.
If the conflict continues, travelers could prefer routes that go through other cities, like London, Frankfurt, or Istanbul, where there’s less risk.
Alp Ozaman, a professor at New York University and a marketing manager for Turkish Airlines, said the problem will be whether tourists remember this episode and consider places like Dubai safe in the future. “The memory of this will go a long way,” he said in regards to travelers stuck at airports and on cruise ships over the past week.
Ozaman said countries like the UAE have invested too much in tourism and will take concerted efforts to win visitors back if there is a hit to the industry. “They will not just throw their hands up and give up,” he said.
Though he said what happens next is not entirely in their hands. “These countries are really good in marketing: UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,” he said, but they can’t control the situation with Iran.
He said how this conflict ultimately ends and whether there is regime change in Iran could also impact whether tourists return to the Gulf or try to avoid it.
The Carifees from Texas said they’d be open to returning in the future. They said they felt relatively safe and that the government has been doing a lot to reassure residents and visitors.
Fyall said he feels for Dubai and other tourism destinations in the region because they have so much to offer visitors, but “at the end of the day, it’s stability, and it’s safety.”
“Those are the two words that drive tourism anywhere on the planet.”
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