The thought of leaving Dubai fills Kiran Ali with dread.
Ali, a Washington, DC, import who works in enterprise sales at a data streaming company, moved to Dubai in March 2024.
Speaking to Business Insider on Tuesday, she said she’ll only leave Dubai if it becomes dangerous for her two young kids.
“Dubai is the most fulfilled and happy I have been in my adult life,” she told Business Insider. “I have an incredible career, a purpose in community organizing, and great work life balance.”
For more than two decades, Dubai has marketed itself as a safe haven for expats with zero income tax, high salaries, and a luxury lifestyle.
But the US and Israel’s strikes on Iran over the weekend have thrown the Middle East into turmoil and raised questions about Dubai’s future as a business, tourism, and expat hub.
Some of the expats on the ground, however, aren’t giving up on their expat dream so easily.
‘Nobody’ wants to leave
Stephanie Baker, a property investment specialist from the UK, moved to Dubai a year ago.
The city has been great for her professional life, she said.
“Every single meeting that I had when I first moved over here linked very much into the next meeting and the next meeting and the next meeting,” she said. “There was no doubt in my mind that I am where I’m supposed to be in life right now. I am supposed to be in Dubai.”
On Saturday, Baker was out celebrating her birthday with friends when they left Eva Beach Club on the Palm Jumeirah to go to another bar along the beach. Outside the entrance to the second nearby restaurant — Ayla Beach Club — they saw drone debris pass by and hit the luxury hotel, Fairmont Dubai.
“That was obviously pretty scary. I think that would be scary for anybody to see that, you know, and see all the smoke, the fire,” she said.
“But I have to say the way that it’s been handled here has made everybody that I’ve spoken to feel very, very safe,” she said, pointing to what she described as strict instructions and clear communications from government officials. “When I’ve asked people if they’d want to leave, nobody does.”
Jimmy Sexton, an American who moved from Las Vegas to Dubai in 2015, also has no plans to leave right now.
“The UAE Government, in my view, has always handled crises very well,” he said, pointing to the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic as an example.
Sexton, the founder of Esquire Group, which provides wealth and tax advice to UHNWIs in the UAE, said none of his clients have so far indicated that they plan to leave the country or move their investments elsewhere.
“As things stand right now, I haven’t heard of anybody I know that’s living here and is thinking about moving,” he said.
Still, “you never know how this situation evolves,” he added.
‘A little bit shook’
Iran’s retaliation against the US and Israel has led to strikes across six Gulf nations, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
In Dubai, its main airport, one of its ports — Jebel Ali — and two luxury hotels in the city have been damaged in the past few days.
As of Tuesday, the US has urged Americans in Middle Eastern countries, including the UAE, to depart immediately. But multiple airspaces and airports in the region remain closed or operating at minimal capacity, including Dubai International Airport, and several US embassies have said they are unable to assist citizens in evacuating.
The UAE has recommended that private sector employees work remotely until Tuesday. Schools and universities have shifted to remote learning until Wednesday. Trading on the UAE’s stock market was suspended on Monday and Tuesday but is slated to reopen on Wednesday.
“I have spoken to families around the world in the last couple of days,” Angelo Robles, a global family offices strategist who works with wealthy families in Dubai, told Business Insider. “They’re a little bit shook about what is happening. They’re a little bit unclear about Dubai and the UAE as a longer-term destination moving forward.”
Robles said it’s too early to make longer-term predictions about what will happen, but the idea that the UAE or Dubai is an “absolute safe haven” is now open to debate.
“The concern is that the Middle East — although it may have certain charms to people from around the world, from tax arbitrage and other perspectives — can also be somewhat still a powder keg and dangerous,” Robles said.
Some expats are already making plans to leave the city — at least temporarily.
Indus Chaffeur, a luxury chauffeur service based in Dubai, says it has seen an uptick in “last-minute and urgent enquiries” from wealthy Western travelers, particularly for cross-border transfers over the last week.
“Demand appears precaution-driven rather than panic-driven,” Indus Chaffeur’s operations coordinator Mike D’Souza told Business Insider. These travelers are leaving affected areas to reunite with their families abroad, he said.
Philippe Amarante, a managing partner at the wealth research firm Henley & Partners, told Business Insider: “I have not come across anything other than just calmness and compliance in following government directives” among his clients and partners.
“I hear ‘stories’ of people driving to Saudi Arabia to catch planes, but from what I understand, these are businessmen who need to travel, not evacuate,” Amarante added.
For many, life continues as usual
While some expats on social media say the weekend’s escalation has spooked them, others describe life in Dubai as being close to normal.
They’re posting videos of busy beaches and malls, saying the situation has been overhyped by Western media.
Bo Jablonski has lived in Abu Dhabi — around an hour-and-a-half drive from Dubai — with her husband and kids for four years. She said that while she was “quite shocked” that the war in Iran has affected the UAE, it has not tempted her “to return to the UK at all.”
“The quality of life here is far higher than what we left behind. Our children have a great life here, our job prospects are better,” she added.
“There has already been discussion about whether the perception of safety in Abu Dhabi and Dubai has been permanently punctured,” she said.”
“But that conversation feels louder outside the country than inside it. Some are relishing in their proclamations that ‘Dubai is done,'” she added.
Selina Boyd, an education consultant and international editor of The Good Schools Guide — based in the UK and with clients in the UAE — said her takeaway from speaking to families in the region is that “there’s just a lot of uncertainty.”
“You know, there’s lots of chatter about: ‘Do they stay put? Do they try and go to Oman?'”
“It’s that balance of trying to keep a routine, trying to keep your children calm, but without knowing what’s going on and without knowing how long it’s going to go on for,” she added.
For Ali, the mother of two, when she thinks about her outlook four days into the war in Iran, Dubai is “still very much home.”
“Truly, it doesn’t matter where we live globally because there is always going to be some political theatre occurring somewhere in the world,” she said. “We might as well live where our family is thriving.”
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