Zohran Mamdani won a resounding mayoral victory by promising to make it cheaper to live in New York City.
However, his victory earlier this month may have the unintended effect of making it even more expensive for the ultrawealthy to afford their homes in favorite ex-New Yorker haunts like Greenwich, Palm Beach, and the Hamptons, top real estate agents told Business Insider. Real estate agents in these elite zip codes say that the “Mamdani effect” is already creeping into prices or causing some to pull the trigger to buy, as locals anticipate another migration wave.
2025 was already a “banner year” for Dina Goldentayer, a Miami-based real estate agent who, with more than $3 billion in sales since 2021, is the top earner at real estate firm Douglas Elliman. Even as prices are dropping in Miami at the median-home level, they’re growing for ultra-luxury buyers. As of September, the median home price for Miami was down about 4% year-over-year, while it was up 8.4% for luxury homes in Miami, according to Redfin.
“Every year, our price points get higher and higher,” she said. Referencing million-dollar listings, she added: “30 is the new 20.”
This dynamic mimics a broader consumer dynamic, with wealthy Americans spending more while the rest cut back.
She has not had any New York to Miami transplant clients say they were moving because of Mamdani, but she said Miamians believe the “election results will flood the market with New Yorkers.”
“I’ve had some sellers in Miami say, ‘Let’s raise my price,'” Goldentayer said, though she has cautioned them to wait until he actually rolls out policies before raising it.
Socialist Mamdani, who will take office in 2026, has proposed raising taxes on those making more than $1 million a year, and criticized the New York Police Department. His campaign left ultrawealthy New Yorkers concerned he’s going to target their wealth and make the city less safe.
While sellers are salivating at steep price jumps, buyers are worried that New Yorkers will drive prices up, Goldentayer said.
“I had one client use the expression ‘The Mamdani effect is being baked into the price,'” Goldentayer said.
Heading down to Florida
Nancy Batchelor, a top Miami real estate agent who heads her own group with Compass, wrote to BI that she’s had “a handful of buyers mention the election,” but that it’s never the “sole reason.”
“What we’re seeing is more subtle; people who were on the fence are now exploring their options with more urgency,” Bachelor wrote. “Many are waiting it out to see if anything changes in New York City before making a decision.”
That might mean buying a second home in Miami for now, but not actually moving their family south in the middle of the school year, she said.
And in markets like Palm Beach, which has been a magnet for Manhattanites, what started as a pandemic trend is turning into a “full lifestyle shift,” Samantha Curry, a top Palm Beach real estate agent, wrote to BI.
South Florida has attracted a number of billionaires like legendary investor Carl Icahn and Citadel’s Ken Griffin, who moved his firm’s Chicago headquarters to Miami. Steven Ross, former CEO of Related, which developed the upscale Hudson Yards neighborhood in NYC, spun out the firm’s Palm Beach operations to form Related Ross.
Curry has heard from ex-New Yorkers who said the potential tax implications and safety concerns of Mamdani have been a reason for their searches. Right now, it’s mostly “driving conversations,” especially with the top tier of clients, but actual increases in taxes will really change things.
“If that happens, we expect to see another wave of buyers from the north heading to Palm Beach,” she wrote.
A record year for Greenwich
While Miami and Palm Beach have become destinations for financial types, a more traditional post-Wall Street destination, Greenwich, CT, is actually seeing some post-election sales.
Ultra-luxury Greenwish home sales jumped after Mamdani’s June primary victory, with more homes sold in a shorter period, and at higher prices, with an average of $19.7 million per home after the nomination compared to $14.9 million before, according to the mid-November analysis by Mark Pruner, a top Greenwich agent for Compass.
Pruner said the town has seen three large sales go into contract since the election, ranging from $14 million to $28 million. He has had some clients say that Mamdani is a factor behind their move, but that the evidence is “anecdotal.”
What is certain is that Greenwich is having a record year, he said, saying that it’s on track for more than 50 sales over $10 million, compared to a prior high of 19 in 2007.
“A significant portion of it is the concern about the stock market,” Pruner said. “We’re at record highs, people are sitting at lots of unrealized profits, and there are people who are taking money out of their stock investments and putting it into high-end real estate here in Greenwich.”
If a Mamdani wave continues, home hunters will have slim pickings in Greenwich. Inventory is down 82% from where it was pre-COVID, according to Pruner, pushing prices higher before any Mamdani effect became part of the equation.
So far, the numbers don’t match the chatter. Despite all the talk of wealthy fleeing, and that penthouses and brownstones would be going for bargain rates, luxury home sales surged in the city following the election. The week of the election saw 41 contracts signed at $4 million and above, the most in a single week since late May, according to the Olshan Luxury Market Report.
New York’s continued strength is a result of “multi-market living,” said Miami’s Batchelor.
“Many aren’t choosing between New York and Miami, they’re choosing both,” she said.
Now that’s not to say there won’t be some ultrawealthy people selling properties in New York, but many of the ultrawealthy will buy in Florida and change their domicile to shake off the tax man while keeping their pad on Billionaire’s Row.
“The nice thing is, if you can afford an over $10 million house, you generally can afford two, or three, or four,” said Pruner.
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