As aerial strikes between Iran and Israel continue, Russia may be feeling the ripple effects across the Black Sea.
“The conflict will likely negatively impact the future provision of Iranian military equipment to Russia,” the UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on Thursday.
The UK MOD said that “Iran has supplied significant quantities of one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems” to Russia, as well as having provided “extensive support” to its production of these drones.
For the Kremlin, the timing of the latest Middle East conflict isn’t entirely unwelcome; with global attention shifting to the Iran-Israel standoff, pressure on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine could ease.
However, the conflict could also spark long-term issues for Russia, which continues to depend on Iran for Shahed drones and their parts.
Iran has also supplied Russia with ballistic missiles and other munitions, the MOD said.
Iran’s Shahed drones have become a key weapon in the war in Ukraine. The Shahed-136, an Iranian-designed weapon that Moscow now also produces, has been at the heart of Russia’s drone attacks on Ukraine, being used against cities and critical infrastructure.
These drones can fly at speeds of over 115 mph with a nearly 90-pound explosive warhead.
It’s not clear what percentage of the drones Russia now produces itself, and how much it still relies on those coming from Iran.
Friends in need
The war in Ukraine has dragged on for more than three years, with Western nations continuing to funnel weapons and aid to Kyiv.
Meanwhile, Iran has been one of Russia’s most important military partners, and Tehran has played a crucial role in helping Russia scale up its domestic drone production, providing both equipment and technical expertise.
A wide-ranging strategic partnership deal signed between Russia and Iran in January strengthened cooperation in areas like defense, energy, and trade, but it didn’t commit either side to come to the other’s aid in a conflict. That stands in sharp contrast to Russia’s mutual defense arrangements with countries like Belarus and North Korea.
If Iran becomes increasingly bogged down in a direct confrontation with Israel, its ability to keep any supply lines open to Russia would likely be compromised.
A full-blown war might stretch Iran’s military production capacity or expose it to international sanctions and strikes that disrupt its defense industry sector.
Russia has already been weaning itself off Iran’s Shaheds.
Business Insider has reported on multiple attempts by Russia to build Shahed-like drones domestically. These include Russia’s Geran-2 drones, which are similar to Shahed-136s but made with different materials, researchers at Conflict Armament Research told The New York Times last year.
For now, the Kremlin is staying quiet — a likely sign it’s trying to keep its options open. But as the latest Middle East conflict heats up, Russia may soon find that one of its closest alliances is less helpful than it once was.
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