Drones are transforming warfare, and Western militaries are now in an intensifying race to develop models capable of operating in one of the harshest environments on Earth: the Arctic.
NATO countries are fast discovering the potential, as well as limits, of drones in the Arctic, where geopolitical competition is intensifying.
Russia and China have increased their military presence in the region, and the Pentagon said last year it will be relying more on unmanned technologies to monitor regional threats.
Military analysts told Business Insider that drones could be crucial in any military confrontation in the region.
However, there are major obstacles to deploying the technology at scale in an area where winter temperatures can drop to -40 degrees.
A new race for Arctic dominance
In Ukraine, drones, both aerial and naval, have been heavily used for surveillance as well as being fitted with explosives to strike targets.
The challenge of using drones in the Arctic comes down to the region’s “harsh environment and its lack of connectivity,” Nicolas Jouan, a defence and security analyst at RAND Europe, told BI.
Most Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles, or UAVs, are powered by batteries, which are badly affected by cold weather, he said.
Another issue is communication, with most drones directed by controllers using GPS signals. Satellites, though, can provide only “reduced and unreliable” GPS coverage in the Arctic, Jouan added.
In late April, the UK’s 30 Commando Information Exploitation Group said it had been testing the limits of drone technology in extreme cold weather training in Norway, as well as testing new models there.
Around the same time, Col. Joshua Glonek, the commander of the US 3rd Brigade Combat Team of the 10th Mountain Division, told reporters that during recent extreme cold-weather training in Germany, drone operations were severely impacted.
“What we found was battery life was significantly degraded in the cold and affected the flight time and the ability of us to employ some of our drones,” he said.
Zak Kallenborn, a drone warfare analyst, told BI that the commercial drones that have become ubiquitous in the war in Ukraine struggle to handle the cold.
“Some small drones have been developed to handle cold weather conditions, but I don’t know if they can handle as cold as the Arctic,” he said.
Russia’s advantage
Gregory Falco, an assistant professor at the Sibley School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at Cornell University, told BI that the systems used by drones to collect data, such as cameras and lidar — which uses lasers to register distance and chart territory — can also be affected by adverse weather.
The “biggest challenge for developing drones for Arctic warfare is the sensing in a heavily denied environment,” he said.
Complicating the situation, at least for Western countries, is the fact that Russia appears to have a drone technology advantage in the region.
The Russian military has deployed UAV models, including the Orlan-10 and Inokhodets, in the Arctic, and is developing a specialized combat drone, the S-70 Okhotnik.
The S-70 is a plane-sized drone that can be deployed for attack missions or surveillance. It has reportedly been tested in Arctic conditions, though its technology is a closely guarded secret; Russia shot one down in 2024 to stop it falling into Ukrainian hands.
Working together
The fears are that Russia could use its Arctic drone strength to expand its regional power.
James Patton Rogers, a drone expert at Cornell University, told Reuters in January that Russia would likely soon be able to monitor the North Sea route, connecting Europe and Asia, with drones.
“We’re moving towards a point where Russia will not only have unarmed surveillance drone systems along the Northern Sea Route, but potentially armed systems that are constantly patrolling those areas,” he said.
In the race to boost their presence in the Arctic, and integrate new drone technologies, some Western countries are cooperating closely together.
In May 2024, Denmark and Norway announced that they’d be launching joint drone reconnaissance operations in the region, with the MQ-4C Triton among the models being considered.
A report last year for the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that Northrop Grumman’s long-range MQ-4C Triton was among the few Western-made drones capable of operating effectively in Arctic conditions.
But they’re designed for high altitude surveillance, and would be attractive targets for Russia, it said.
Norway is also set to open a drone surveillance base in Andøya, the hub of its military in the region, The Barents Observer reported.
And some Scandinavian countries are seeking to develop their own drones capable of withstanding Arctic conditions.
“Russia has been working on Arctic-rated drones for longer than the US, but Sweden and Finland have been working on this too,” Falco said.
Quantity, not just quality
In its 2024 report, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that, when it comes to the Arctic, drone numbers will count as much as they have in Ukraine, and that Western countries should prioritize scale, not just quality.
“Rather than opting for fewer numbers of expensive drones, which do not capture the military-technological advantages of evolving drone capabilities, the Arctic should choose instead to adopt many less-expensive variations,” it suggested.
But, according to Falco, the US will have to work closely with its Arctic region allies if it wants to compete with Russia.
“We need to rely on these partners to be at parity in the Arctic domain,” he said.
Read the full article here
