The first cold snap is weeks away, but your heating bill is already written.

The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), the group that runs the states’ heating-aid programs, put out its winter forecast in mid-September. The average household will spend about $1,030 to stay warm this winter, up $82, or 8.7%. That’s more than two and a half times the inflation rate.

If you heat with oil, brace yourself: The NEADA projects a 31.3% jump. CBS News figures that’s nearly $2,300 for the four coldest months. Electricity is up 9%; propane, 8.7%; natural gas, 5.8%.

The villain isn’t your thermostat. It’s the war with Iran — which pushed…

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