Americans love SUVs and full-size pickups. President Donald Trump’s latest auto tariffs would hit the US’s bestsellers with remarkable precision.
In a Monday Truth Social post, the President threatened 50% tariffs on all Canadian-made cars and trucks. The tariffs, which could go into effect on January 1, 2027, will also hit imported steel and automotive parts.
America’s second-, third-, and fourth-best-selling vehicles in 2025 — the Chevy Silverado, the Toyota RAV4, and the Honda CR-V — all rely on production plants in Canada. Last year’s best-selling vehicle, Ford’s F-Series, has also been scheduled to begin Canadian assembly of its Super Duty trucks later this year. The fifth-best-selling vehicle in the US last year, the Ram 1500, has a significant portion of its parts assembly in Canada, too.
“The impact of unworkable tariffs would be felt well beyond Canadian assembly plants,” Erin Keating, an executive analyst at Cox Automotive, told Business Insider. “Some of America’s most popular vehicles are built in Canada.”
Automakers have escape routes — but they aren’t simple
Tariff exposure would not be evenly distributed across every vehicle.
Toyota, Honda, Ford, and General Motors also rely on assembly plants in the US to build these high-volume cars. That could allow the automakers to shift some production, David Whiston, an auto analyst at Morningstar, told Business Insider.
Honda, for example, already moved a portion of the Canadian CR-V production intended for US buyers to Ohio in 2025, although its Ontario plant continues to export vehicles to the US.
Still, the timing is difficult for several of these high-volume nameplates. Because of production constraints, RAV4 sales are down 36% this year, following Toyota’s redesign of the popular SUV. The automaker is already trying to ramp production at its current factories to meet demand. GM is preparing its Oshawa plant to build its next generation of full-size Silverados. Ford, meanwhile, has spent roughly CA$ 5 billion retooling Oakville to produce Super Duty trucks.
“The math on that just got a lot worse for them with the 50% tariff,” Whiston said about the Canadian investments.
White House’s solution: Build in America
The White House defended the tariffs as an incentive for automakers to expand US production.
“President Trump has always been clear: if you don’t want to worry about tariffs, make your product in the USA,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said. “Domestic and foreign automakers alike, from Ford to Stellantis to Toyota, are investing billions to reshore manufacturing back to America without raising prices for this reason, and other automakers should follow suit.”
Those investments do not necessarily replace the Canadian capacity.
The $3.6 billion Toyota investment recently highlighted by the White House will move Tacoma production from Mexico to Texas by 2030. It has no impact on the higher-volume RAV4.
It also remains unclear how the new tariff would be calculated. The current 25% tariff on Canadian vehicles provides a discount for US content. The White House did not directly answer whether the tariffs themselves could affect vehicle prices and availability.
Still time for a deal
Automakers have four months to adjust their sourcing and production plans, and the tariff could still change through negotiations between Washington and Ottawa, analysts said.
“I think a lot is still to happen between now and January 1, so maybe the two countries will work something out,” Whiston said.
Keating said the parts tariffs could also reach drivers who aren’t shopping for a new vehicle. More expensive replacement parts could raise repair and insurance costs, she said, regardless of where a driver’s vehicle was assembled.
“The bigger question is affordability,” Keating said. “Any policy that increases costs puts additional pressure on a market where many households already feel that virtually everything costs more than it did a few years ago.”
Toyota declined to comment. Honda did not provide a comment by publication time. Ford and GM did not respond to requests for comment.
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