At the center of the debate over AI-driven catastrophe, there’s Anthropic. At the center of Anthropic, there’s Jared Kaplan.

The Anthropic cofounder sounded the alarm on AI late last year: No one knows what will happen if frontier developers get AI to the point where it fully trains itself. He told the Guardian that letting AI train itself could lead to an “intelligence explosion,” but it’s also the “ultimate risk” and “maybe the biggest decision or scariest thing to do.” The decision point for that process, he said, could arrive between 2027 and 2030.

We’re just about on schedule. As 2026 winds down, state-of-the-art AI systems are already…