On August 6, the first tranche of locked-up SpaceX shares was released. Roughly 911.5 million shares became eligible to trade in a single session.

SPCX went up 6%.

Then it went up again the next day, closing out a two-day gain of about 11% on the exact event everybody had circled on their calendar as the plunge.

I had circled it too.

The Consensus Was Obvious, And Obviously Wrong

SpaceX’s public float before that day was about 639 million shares. The unlock added roughly 143% to the tradeable supply overnight.

Put another way, the freely tradable portion of the company went from about 4.9% of shares outstanding to about 11.8%. The float more than…

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