The auto industry is clinging to 2026.
At the end of August, just 12.4% of new-vehicle inventory was 2027 model-year, according to CarGurus data shared with Business Insider. That’s a sharp break from recent patterns: At the same point in each of the past three years, roughly one-quarter of new dealership inventory was for the next model year.
Kevin Roberts, the director of economic and market intelligence for CarGurus, told Business Insider that the transition looks similar to the period from 2020 through 2022, when the industry was dealing with Covid-era assembly-line shutdowns and chip shortages.
This year is different and less existential, he said, because “a lot of factors all came together to create something kind of unique this year.”
High-volume cars are driving the trend
America’s most popular cars are showing up late to the 2027 party.
Erin Keating, Cox Automotive’s executive analyst, told Business Insider that the trend is largely powered by big-name vehicles getting refreshed designs at different times.
“In several cases, what looks like a slowdown at the brand level is really individual models rotating,” she said. “It’s important not to read this as uniform across a brand’s whole lineup.”
GM is the cleanest example. The Detroit automaker has redesigned the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra for 2027, with assembly of the new trucks expected to begin in October. The pickups are the company’s best sellers, so a later handoff keeps an outsize number of 2026 models in the market.
Other examples are more idiosyncratic, but still focused on best-sellers. Nissan’s high-volume Rogue received a 2026.5 model year. Toyota’s ever-popular RAV4 got its 2026 update in calendar 2025, making a quick switch to a 2027 version less likely.
Honda is still sending fresh 2026 models to dealerships, too, Roberts said. The car company told Business Insider that some of its best-selling 2027 CR-V SUVs have reached dealerships, but model year changeover “is not fixed to a specific month, quarter, or time of year.”
“The 2027 model-year rollout is picking up speed but running behind last year’s schedule,” Keating said, adding that Kia, Cadillac, and BMW are already well into the model year switch. “It’s an uneven transition, though.”
Deals to come?
Cars are expensive.
The average transaction price for a new vehicle climbed back above $50,000 in August, according to Cox Automotive data. Keating said the later model-year transition could help “keep prices more stable,” rather than pushing them down. Normally, freshly designed cars also come with higher prices.
Patient shoppers may still find an opportunity, Roberts added. As 2027 inventory arrives in greater numbers, dealers will have more reason to move remaining 2026 models.
“Eventually you’ll start to see better deals for consumers on incentives,” he said. “The timing might be a little bit more delayed this year.”
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