Most grocery price stories tell you the same useless thing: Prices are going up. Thanks.
This one’s different, because for once we’ve got names and a date.
Over the past two weeks, the biggest packaged-food companies in America stood up at an investor conference in Boston and told Wall Street exactly what they’re about to do to your grocery bill. One of them put it in writing to retailers.
I’ve been reading corporate disclosures since I got my CPA in 1981. Here’s what they said, which brands it hits, and what I’d put in the cart instead.
1. Conagra — Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, Banquet, Marie Callender’s
This is the one with a date on it.
Conagra told retailers to expect higher prices on a range of products effective late September, according to memos reviewed by Bloomberg News. Healthy Choice meals, Banquet bowls, Marie Callender’s pot pies, Birds Eye vegetables and Blue Bonnet spreads are all on the list.
Chief Customer Officer Derek De La Mater told retail customers that absorbing the cost increases isn’t sustainable, and said the hikes are needed partly to protect profit margins.
Read that last part again. Not “to stay in business.” To maintain margins.
What to buy instead: Frozen vegetables are the easiest swap in the entire store. Store-brand frozen peas and broccoli come off the same kind of line as the branded bags, often from the same processors.
On frozen dinners, the honest answer is that a bag of rice, a rotisserie chicken and a bag of frozen veg beat a $5 pot pie on both price and dinner quality.
2. Campbell’s — soup, Prego, Goldfish, Pepperidge Farm
Campbell’s isn’t planning a price increase. It already took one.
Chief Financial Officer Todd Cunfer told analysts the company put through average increases of 4% to 5% across roughly 60% of its portfolio, and expects the benefit to start showing up in its fiscal second quarter. At the Barclays conference, he called raising prices “the last lever we have” after cost cutting couldn’t keep up.
That 60% covers a lot of pantry: Campbell’s soups, Prego, Pace, Swanson, V8, Goldfish, Pepperidge Farm, Cape Cod and Snyder’s of Hanover.
Cunfer also said something revealing about how the increases were chosen. The company went brand by brand, he said, looking at how much private label was in each category and where the price gaps were.
Translation: They raised prices most where they figured you had the fewest alternatives.
What to buy instead: Condensed soup and broth are among the most reliable store-brand wins in the store. Compare per ounce, not per can — the sizes have drifted.
This guide on when to splurge on name brands and when to buy generic breaks down where the quality gap is real and where you’re paying for the label.
3. Clorox — Hidden Valley, Glad
Clorox said it’s raising prices on its food business, which means Hidden Valley dressings, along with Glad trash bags and some cleaning products.
CEO Linda Rendle said the increases would be targeted, because “we feel right now the consumer is stretched.”
I appreciate the candor. I’d appreciate it more if it came with lower prices.
What to buy instead: Ranch dressing is buttermilk, mayo, herbs and about nine minutes. If that’s not your thing, store-brand ranch is one of the smallest quality gaps in the condiment aisle.
On trash bags, the store brand at a warehouse club is usually the best value per bag by a wide margin.
4. McCormick — spices and seasonings
McCormick already raised prices earlier this year and has told investors it expects those increases to help results in the back half of 2026.
Spices are the single most marked-up thing in a grocery store. A jar of branded cumin can run four to six times what the identical spice costs in the international aisle or at an ethnic market — same product, different packaging.
What to buy instead: Buy spices in bags rather than jars, refill the jars you already own, and shop the international aisle. This is one of those swaps where you save real money and nobody at your table can tell.
A quick nudge — when it comes to money, the best day to get smart was 20 years ago. The second-best is today. Sign up for the free Money Talks Newsletter and start now. Takes 10 seconds, costs nothing, and could change your retirement.
The brand to watch: Kraft Heinz — Oscar Mayer, Classico, Kraft, Heinz
Kraft Heinz is the interesting case, because it’s holding out — for now.
CFO Andre Maciel said the company is trying to keep increases “as minimum as possible,” and the company says it expects to absorb roughly 80% of this year’s inflation. It’s actually cut prices on some Oscar Mayer deli products.
But Maciel also said that if the whole market moves, Kraft Heinz will go along with it.
So that’s the deal on the table. Four companies raise prices, the fifth follows, and the thing that keeps your ketchup cheap is competition — not restraint.
What to buy instead: Nothing yet. Kraft Heinz is the one to watch, not the one to flee. If you’ve got a brand you’re loyal to here, this is the window to stock up on the shelf-stable stuff before the market moves and its goods move with it.
Here’s the part nobody’s saying out loud
Same inflation. Same tariffs. Same diesel bill. Five different answers.
Conagra says it needs the increase to protect margins. Kraft Heinz says it’ll eat 80% of the cost. General Mills cut prices, saw sales improve, and told the same conference it doesn’t think it needs to do more right now.
Those are choices, made company by company, based on how much they think you’ll tolerate.
I spent a decade on Wall Street before I started writing about money, and I’ll tell you what that conference really is. It’s a room where executives explain to shareholders how much they can raise prices without you walking away.
The costs are real, to be fair. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in August, with food-at-home prices up 2.2% over the previous 12 months.
Gasoline was up 27.4% year over year, and the national average for diesel crossed $6 a gallon for the first time — and diesel is what moves food to the store.
It could get worse. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds at greater than 90% that this winter brings a very strong El Niño, which can hit harvests and shipping.
We laid out the commodity forces heading for your grocery bill in 2027 if you want the longer view.
But “our costs went up” and “we’re raising prices to protect margins” aren’t the same sentence. One is a problem. The other is a decision.
What I’d do this week
Nothing here requires you to become a coupon person.
Stock up now on the shelf-stable and freezer items from this list that you use. The increases hit at the manufacturer level first, and retailers decide when to pass them along. That lag is your window, and it’s measured in weeks.
Test one store brand per shopping trip. Not all of them at once — one. You’ll find the ones your household can’t tell apart, and those become permanent.
Shop by unit price, not sticker price. This is the single highest-return habit in the store, and it’s the only defense against packages that shrink while prices hold. Here’s how much shopping by unit price can save you.
And know which aisles are still cheap. Beans, rice, oats, eggs, frozen produce and store-brand dairy have held up far better than packaged meals. Our inflation-proof grocery list has the full rundown.
If higher grocery bills are squeezing the rest of your budget, a budgeting tool can show you where the money’s actually going.
These companies just told their shareholders exactly what’s coming. The least you can do is shop like you were listening.
Read the full article here
