Snowfalls can now beget windfalls.
As Americans rush to buy essentials ahead of Winter Storm Fern, some are also buying shares on prediction markets, like Kalshi and Polymarket, betting on how much snow will fall in New York City.
Traders on Kalshi have bet almost $900,000 as of Saturday afternoon on whether more than 12 inches of snow will fall in New York City on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, on Polymarket, traders have bet about $210,000 on how much snow New York City will see this weekend. The winning category is now 8 to 10 inches.
The storm is expected to bring heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain to multiple states in the South, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Northeast this weekend. The National Weather Service says the storm could impact some 180 million Americans. Thousands of flights have already been canceled.
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell shares in the outcomes of future events, such as sports or elections. Polymarket also provides real-time updates, allowing bets to provide insights into how consumers and investors think.
Polymarket bettors correctly predicted nearly the entire slate of Golden Globe winners last week, prompting a celebration from Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.
“We have a long way to go to educate the public on the value of market-based forecasts, but you can’t deny its accuracy,” Coplan wrote. “People have more clarity about the world because Polymarket exists.”
The new markets are not strictly regulated, and some bets have looked a lot like insider trading. A last-minute bet on Polymarket earlier this month that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be ousted netted strong returns after the US captured Maduro in a surprise raid hours later.
Snowfall totals, on the other hand, are perhaps less susceptible to market manipulation.
Read the full article here
