American shoppers are coming off a strong Thanksgiving spending period, with Black Friday expected to set a record.
Adobe’s initial Black Friday e-commerce data projects that consumers will spend a record $11.7 billion online, up 8.3% from 2024. Shoppers are expected to take advantage of deals early and outpace Cyber Monday spending, as they anticipate finding the best deals on Friday, according to Adobe.
Users are hunting for toys, electronics, and skincare as gifts, with Labubus and Lego sets expected to sell quickly. On the electronics front, demand for the iPhone 17 is strong, Adobe said, and the Oura ring is also a popular choice.
Although the PlayStation 5 remains a highly sought-after item in 2025, it’s expected to be dethroned by the Nintendo Switch 2 as the top gaming console this Black Friday. Self-care also appears to be a significant trend, with hair care tools, fragrances, and skincare sets on Adobe’s shortlist.
Black Friday follows a better-than-expected Thanksgiving day, which came in at $6.4 billion, a 5.3% bump year over year.
The record spending was driven by big discounts, impulse-led mobile shopping, and AI shopping assistants, according to Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights. On Thanksgiving, the number of consumers who visited US retail sites through an AI chat service increased by 725% compared to last year.
Many major retailers invested in their own generative AI chatbots or partnerships in time for holiday shopping. Target, for example, launched a holiday-themed AI shopping assistant that suggests gift ideas based on user prompts.
Overall, Adobe estimates that Cyber Week (the five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday) will account for 17.2% of spending this season, totaling $43.7 billion.
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