Mortgage Rates Rise Amid Post-Fed Volatility

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Current mortgage rates

The 30-year fixed mortgages in this week’s survey had an average total of 0.34 discount and origination points. Discount points are a way to lower your mortgage rate, while origination points are fees lenders charge to create, review and process your loan.

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Monthly mortgage payment at today’s rates

The national median family income for 2025 is $104,200, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the median price of an existing home sold in September 2025 was $415,200, according to the National Association of Realtors. Based on a 20% down payment and a 6.37% mortgage rate, the monthly payment of $2,071 amounts to 24% of the typical family’s monthly income.

“With more housing inventory coming online and home prices starting to level off, this remains a promising environment for those looking to buy or refinance,” says Samir Dedhia, CEO of One Real Mortgage. “Heading into the final Fed meeting of the year, we may see continued volatility, but for now, opportunity still exists.”  

What will happen to mortgage rates in the rest of 2025?

The Federal Reserve cut rates last month for the second time this year, trimming its benchmark rate. Mortgage rates are still at some of their lowest levels of the year, according to Bankrate’s national survey of lenders. They were at 6.20% in early October of last year before shooting up in late 2024 and early 2025.

While the Fed decided to leave the federal funds rate untouched for most of 2025, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell finally acted at the central bank’s September and October meetings. Even so, fixed mortgage rates are not set directly by the Fed but by investor appetite, particularly for 10-year Treasury bonds. When there’s uncertainty in the market, investors buy Treasury bonds, which in turn drives yields — and, often, mortgage rates — downward.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy seems to be losing steam. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have been blamed for an increase in inflation, which moved up to 3% in September, making little progress toward the Fed’s inflation target of 2%. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.11% as of Wednesday afternoon, up from about 4.06% a week earlier.

One major question mark is the job market, which has been showing signs of weakness. Another risk is the political climate — the federal government’s shutdown was the longest such impasse on record.

“The markets will be keen to get the backlog of economic data for September and October, which will provide insight into the state of the economy,” says Melissa Cohn of William Raveis Mortgage. “Weak jobs data should help to ensure that the Fed will cut rates again at the final meeting of the year.”

• Methodology
  

  The Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders is conducted weekly. To conduct the National Average survey, Bankrate obtains rate information from the 10 largest banks and thrifts in 10 large U.S. markets. In the Bankrate.com national survey, our Market Analysis team gathers rates and/or yields on banking deposits, loans and mortgages. We’ve conducted this survey in the same manner for more than 30 years, and because it’s consistently done the way it is, it gives an accurate national apples-to-apples comparison. Our rates differ from other national surveys, in particular Freddie Mac’s weekly published rates. Each week Freddie Mac surveys lenders on the rates and points based on first-lien prime conventional conforming home purchase mortgages with a loan-to-value of 80 percent. “Lenders surveyed each week are a mix of lender types — thrifts, credit unions, commercial banks and mortgage lending companies — is roughly proportional to the level of mortgage business that each type commands nationwide,” according to Freddie Mac.