One month after the new Labour government has taken power, the country has been engulfed in riots – in the north and south – that are ostensibly driven by far-right groups, and at the same time Muslim youths in cities like Bolton.
The riots were triggered by the murder of three children in a stabbing attack in Southport, and a specific tactic has been to target hotels and accommodation centres used for asylum seekers.
The tactics deployed in the riots appear to be coordinated on social media (by far right groups and potentially other actors), and are suspiciously all too similar to the pattern of recent riots in Ireland.
For background, in November 2023 following a knife attack on a group of children in Dublin (by an alleged migrant) riots erupted in the city centre , and recently there have been violent protests in Dublin (against the housing of asylum seekers). At the time I had spoken to a number of European experts on the ‘far-right’, who mentioned that within an hour of the Dublin protests starting, far-right WhatsApp groups across Europe were animated.
This suggests that there is an element of coordination by the far-right in the violent protests (as well as a template for action), which have happened in many cities. Of interest, Irish far-right groups (of which there are few) have joined far-right protest groups in Belfast (unionists/loyalists), and historically it would have been unimaginable for them to combine.
There are several policy strands here.
The first relates to the policing effort and here police forces across the UK are severely stretched (police chiefs have described the violence as ‘staggering’). There will also be efforts by the security forces to track and halt the coordination of the attacks. The scale of the attacks is weighing not only on the police but also on the criminal justice system (which needs reform and money, and the prison system (already over crowded).
A growing element in the violence is the use of social media to coordinate attacks, and the partisan position of the X owner Elon Musk. Though it is early, we feel that there will be a policy backlash and it is not unlikely that we see a tougher approach to curb the use of social media for ‘hate’ and violent protest. Currently, the UK has the Online Safety Act, whose financially unitive elements only come into force at the end of this year (from when regulators can fine platforms that produce illegal content 10% of revenues). There is scope (need) to introduce further measures to curb hateful and extremist content.
Second, the timing of the protests during the ‘honeymoon’ period for the Labour government is also suspicious and will represent the first test for Keir Starmer.
Thirdly, and from a longer-term point of view, Labour had identified the degradation of social infrastructure across the UK in its manifesto, and the effects of over a decade of austerity on cities outside London is very clear. In addition, the poor integration of mostly Muslim immigrants in UK cities will get greater policy attention, and immigration now becomes an even bigger policy issue. This may bolster support for the small Reform party and could also colour the Tory party leadership contest (the violence is as much a statement about the Tory legacy).
In summary, Keir Starmer’s first test as prime minister is upon him, and the stance he takes (twenty years ago he prosecuted groups involved in similar riots) will define his premiership. We expect him to bolster the police, clampdown on both the rioters and the use of social media to foment trouble. Two far greater tasks, are managing immigration and renewing Britain’s crumbling social infrastructure.
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