Elon Musk has made a lot of promises for what Tesla Robotaxi would achieve by the end of 2025: fully autonomous rides for the public; expanded service areas in multiple regions; and coverage for half the US population, among other milestones.
With the year closing, here’s what Tesla’s ride-hailing service looks like.
As of Wednesday morning, more than 30 Teslas were operating in Austin, where the pilot launch began, offering paid rides with a safety monitor in the front passenger seat.
Tesla also deployed a ride-hailing service in the San Francisco Bay Area earlier this year. There, a safety monitor sits behind the steering wheel due to California regulations.
Musk missing deadlines is hardly new. It’s called “Elon Time.” There’s a website for it. Even the CEO himself recognizes it.
“I am pathologically optimistic with time,” he said in May 2024. “Have been ever since I was a kid.”
Tesla investors and analysts have learned to accept this Musk quirk — just as long as the CEO delivers.
“I hear Tesla lay out the vision, then I try to listen to what the markers are to get there,” Seth Goldstein, a Morningstar analyst, previously told Business Insider.
Days before the year ends, Tesla employees have shared videos on X of what appear to be fully autonomous rides in Austin with no in-car safety monitor. Musk said he took a ride as well and noted “perfect driving.”
In the meantime, here’s everything Musk said Tesla Robotaxi would achieve in 2025.
A Tesla spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
Paid fully-autonomous rides by June
Here’s one that was quickly debunked.
During an earnings call in April, Musk teased the launch of Tesla Robotaxi and said the company was “on track to be able to do paid rides fully autonomously in Austin in June,” following “many other cities in the US by the end of this year.”
That didn’t happen. Tesla Robotaxi was launched with safety monitors in the front passenger seat of the Model Ys.
The monitors are there to stop the rides if they detect unwanted driving behavior, Business Insider reported after using Tesla Robotaxi in Austin.
8 to 10 ‘metro areas’ by the end of the year
In October, Musk said that he expects Robotaxi to be in about “eight to 10 metro areas by the end of the year,” including Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, pending regulatory approval.
Tesla received permits to operate a ride-hailing service in the three states mentioned. The company also appears to be hiring for Robotaxi-related jobs across the US.
However, as of Wednesday, the only paid service available to the public is limited to the San Francisco Bay Area and Austin.
500 cars in Austin, 1,000 in the Bay Area
Musk told the All-In podcast also in October that Tesla will “probably” have “a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area” and “500 or more in the Greater Austin area” by the end of the year.
So far, there’s little evidence to suggest that Tesla is operating with that many vehicles in either region.
The Robotaxi Tracker, which tracks fleet size through crowdsourced data, shows that there are roughly 35 vehicles in Austin and around 130 vehicles in the Bay Area.
Business Insider’s Grace Kay reported this month that Tesla registered 1,655 vehicles and 798 drivers for its ride-hailing service.
Coverage for half the US population
During Tesla’s second-quarter earnings call in July, Musk said Tesla will likely have robotaxis operating for “half of the population of the US by the end of the year.”
The caveats were that the goal is subject to regulatory approval and that the company wants to be “very, very cautious.”
No safety drivers in Austin
Musk said in Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call in October that the company expects to remove the safety drivers in “large parts of Austin” by the end of 2025.
A safety monitor still sits inside Tesla Robotaxi as of Wednesday, but it appears the company is making progress toward that goal.
“A Tesla with no safety monitor in the car and me sitting in the passenger seat took me all around Austin on Sunday with perfect driving,” Musk said in an X post on December 24.
Bonus: FSD Unsupervised for personal Teslas
This is separate from Robotaxi, but FSD, or Full Self-Driving, is the key technology that will underpin Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing service.
In April, Musk said Tesla would deliver FSD Unsupervised for personally-owned vehicles by the end of the year in “many cities in the US.”
Currently, drivers are required to pay attention to the roads to keep FSD activated.
Musk said earlier this month that a software update allowed drivers to use their phones in certain traffic conditions.
Business Insider’s Alistar Barr tried it. Police don’t recommend it.
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