Disney’s decision to reinstate “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” has raised the tension of ABC’s showdown with local TV broadcasters.
Although ABC is bringing Jimmy Kimmel back on Tuesday night, Sinclair and Nexstar — which together own nearly a third of ABC affiliate stations in the US — said they won’t air Kimmel’s show and will instead show local news.
ABC had suspended Jimmy Kimmel “indefinitely” last week for his comments about Charlie Kirk’s killer after pushback from Sinclair and Nexstar and pressure from FCC chair Brendan Carr, who warned he might review local broadcast licenses if stations kept airing the show.
The stakes are high for both ABC and its affiliates.
If Sinclair and Nexstar-owned TV stations sideline Kimmel’s show, ABC’s audience would likely shrink, which could force the network to give ad buyers “makegoods,” or free ad time. In the long term, ABC’s ad rates could fall, further denting its sliding TV revenue.
There’s also risk for the local broadcasters, who may face pushback for boycotting Kimmel. Although affiliate station owners have some discretion over what they air in their markets, viewers who like Kimmel or oppose his deplatforming may ditch local TV for streaming — and never come back.
“If you don’t carry the network stations, your customers will be up in arms,” said Boris Levitan, founder and CEO at broadcast audience research firm Immetrica.
Sinclair and Nexstar’s ad revenue fell 6% and 9%, respectively, in the second quarter as viewers migrate away from traditional TV. Local broadcast stations sell a few minutes of ads per hour on national broadcasts, and networks like ABC sell the rest.
Ad analyst Brian Wieser of Madison & Wall said local broadcasters must know “it’s a very real risk that consumers shift their consumption further to online sources or subscription sources.”
Sinclair and Disney didn’t respond to requests for comment. A Nexstar spokesperson reached before Disney’s decision to restore “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” referred to its previous statement about Kimmel.
Consolidation and negotiations
Sinclair and Nexstar have been gaining power in recent years by snapping up local TV stations. Sinclair now owns or operates 185 stations and 646 channels, 40 of which are ABC affiliates, per its latest quarterly report, while about 30 of Nexstar’s 201 stations are tied to ABC.
This consolidation has given Sinclair and Nexstar leverage as they try to stem the slow, steady decline of the pay-TV bundle.
“The negotiating power has gotten strong on the station side because they’ve been able to gang up,” said Tim Hanlon, the founder and CEO of media consulting firm The Vertere Group.
Both broadcast giants are still looking to make deals, which require approval from Carr’s FCC. Nexstar agreed to a $6.2 billion merger with rival Tegna, and Sinclair has said it’s exploring M&A moves.
Sinclair and Nexstar likely took notes from the Paramount-Skydance merger, which got approved soon after Paramount paid President Trump $16 million to settle his lawsuit against CBS News.
“What’s paramount — pardon the pun — in this case, is getting the deal done,” Wieser said of Nexstar.
Playing it safe, and conservative
Sinclair and Nexstar have reasons to boycott Kimmel that don’t involve the FCC.
Both broadcast powerhouses have conservative-leaning owners and affiliates across the US, including substantial presences in red states.
Sinclair is controlled by executive chairman David Smith and his family, who’ve long supported the Republican Party. As Sinclair’s CEO, Smith told Trump in 2016 that “we are here to deliver your message,” The Guardian reported. Sinclair then told its local news anchors to deliver public service messages warning about “biased and false news” after Trump critiqued the media. Nexstar is generally seen in the industry as less political, though founder and CEO Perry Sook has historically donated to Republicans far more often than Democrats, per Open Secrets.
After years of buying up competitors, these TV station owners may feel empowered to use Carr’s comments about Kimmel as grounds to influence ABC’s programming and correct any perceived bias in late-night TV, which leans left. Sinclair even made a list of demands for Kimmel before re-airing his late-night show, including an apology to Kirk’s family.
By refusing to air Kimmel’s show, Sinclair and Nexstar may further damage what Hanlon said were already “seriously stressed” relationships between networks and local TV affiliates.
Local broadcasters “want to have more power in the relationship with networks,” Wieser said, adding that they may “find room for leverage in those negotiations in politics.”
Plus, the late-night TV format has been threatened by both politics and a precarious business model. CBS said its recent cancellation of Stephen Colbert’s show was “purely a financial decision.” The Trump critic’s show was losing $40 million a year, Puck’s Matt Belloni reported.
“Something that was losing a little bit of money is now losing a lot of money,” Levitan said of late-night TV.
Nexstar’s decision to deplatform Kimmel and align with Carr was simple, said media industry analyst Evan Shapiro. That’s especially true since, in Shapiro’s view, late-night TV is “irrelevant” — at least compared to the cultural influence it once had.
“This was a very smart, calculated risk to trade out an art format for a passage of a merger,” Shapiro said of Nexstar. “They probably didn’t even have to think about it.”
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