The iPhone may feel ubiquitous, but Apple has consistently lagged behind rival Samsung in terms of global smartphone market share.
Tim Cook’s newest iteration, though, is breaking through — and returning Apple to the top of the industry.
A new report from Counterpoint Research projects that Apple will be the leading smartphone producer in 2025, marking the first time since 2011 that it has held that title.
Shipments of iPhones in 2025 are expected to be 10% higher than they were in 2024, Counterpoint senior analyst Yang Wang wrote on LinkedIn about the report, thanks to “strong momentum for the iPhone 17 series.” That’s more than double the growth Samsung is expected to book this year.
“We are tracking double-digit growth for both China and US in October,” he wrote about new iPhone shipments.
Apple’s latest model has received such a positive reception that Cook is anticipating that the final quarter of 2025 will be the best in the company’s history, driven by a strong holiday sales season for the iPhone 17. Apple is expected to sell 243 million phones in 2025, which is 3.3% more than Samsung’s expected sales of 235 million.
The expectation is that there will be plenty of new iPhones under Christmas trees next month, but company projections may not account for poor consumer sentiment and jitters about the economy’s health, which might drive gift-givers to shop more frugally this December.
Consumer confidence has hit its lowest point since April, when President Donald Trump’s tariffs took effect and sent stocks plummeting, according to a survey released by The Conference Board on Tuesday. A Reviews.org survey also found that smartphone users are going longer in between upgrades — 29 months instead of 22 months — than they were nine years ago.
Still, the iPhone 17 has been able to power through these headwinds, as the new model outsold the iPhone 16 in the first 10 days of availability by 14%, according to Counterpoint.
Another drag on Apple’s sales and stock price has been the trade war between the US and China, a massive market that is also a critical part of Apple’s supply chain.
The softening of rhetoric from Trump — he wrote on Truth Social earlier this week that the US “relationship with China is very strong” after a call with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping — and the success of the iPhone 17 has company executives and third-party researchers excited for the company’s Chinese outlook. At market close on Wednesday, Apple’s stock was up slightly, trading at $277.55.
In September, when Apple’s latest iPhone was released, the two different iterations of the iPhone 17 were the best-selling models in China, according to Counterpoint. Apple’s new offering was also the top seller in the US, Germany, and the UK.
The “tailwinds” at Apple’s back have Counterpoint projecting a multi-year run at the top of the smartphone manufacturer leaderboard. Wang, the senior analyst, wrote that Apple “is likely to hold onto the lead until the end of the decade.”
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